America Winter Wheat Forecast: Improvement, But Still Below 2016

WICHITA, KS — U.S. growers are expected to haul in 1.28 billion bushels of winter wheat, the government projected.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service's projection Wednesday is up 2 percent from last month's forecast, but still down 23 percent from last year. The forecast, based on July 1 conditions, is based on a projected average of 49.7 bushels per acre with nearly 26 million acres anticipated to be harvested across the country.

Production nationwide of hard red winter wheat, the type most commonly growing in Kansas, is estimated at 758 million bushels for a 2 percent bump from just last month. (For more local news, click here to sign up for real-time news alerts. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Kansas is the nation's biggest wheat producer with 324.3 million bushels expected to be cut this year.

While that is down 31 percent compared to last year's unusually bountiful harvest, the latest forecast was better than industry observers had anticipated.

Overall winter wheat production increased from last month's forecast due to increased acres and yield but well below last year.LH #StatChat pic.twitter.com/QAdztRbHZn
— USDA-NASS (@usda_nass) July 12, 2017

Average yields are estimated at 47 bushels per acre. Kansas farmers are expected to cut 6.9 million acres of wheat.

The Kansas crop was hit this growing season by widespread wheat streak mosaic disease, brutal hail storms and a late spring snowstorm — ranked in that order by Aaron Harries, marketing director for the industry group Kansas Wheat.

"We could have been looking at another phenomenal crop in western Kansas had it not been for the disease pressure," Harries said.

Yields were a little better than expected, which he attributed to ideal weather conditions during the period grain was filling out. There was also "generally widespread surprise" at how well the wheat crop rebounded from the late blizzard in western Kansas, he said.

Fewer winter wheat heads per square foot this year but head weight is record high. LH #StatChat pic.twitter.com/052XXq7q1R
— USDA-NASS (@usda_nass) July 12, 2017

Harvest is nearly finished across most of Kansas. As of Sunday, 93 percent of the wheat in the state had already been cut.

By Roxana Hegeman, Associated Press

Photo credit: Orlin Wagner, Associated Press