Kansas 2018 Election Results: Kelly Beats Kobach; Yoder Loses

WICHITA, KS — Democratic state Sen. Laura Kelly defeated embattled Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach to become the state's next governor, Democrats emerged victorious in another close race as well, taking down incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder in the process.

Republicans won four of five House seats up for grabs in the state, even as anti-Trump sentiment propelled Democrats to gain control of the chamber for the first time in eight years. Democrat Sharice Davids squeaked by Yoder with 53 percent of the vote to win the 3rd District race. Meanwhile, Republicans Ron Estes, Steve Watkins and Roger Marshall also took home wins.

Voter turnout was reportedly high in the Kansas 2018 midterm election, which was on the national radar this year. The governorship and two U.S. House seats were on the ballot, and experts projected that at least one seat would likely to flip from red to blue.

While you couldn't cast a ballot for or against President Donald Trump, the 2018 midterm election was a referendum on his unorthodox presidency and the high-stakes battle tipped the scales in the U.S. House in Democrats' favor. Turnout was reportedly high throughout the state this year, and multiple social media users reported seeing long lines at polling locations, including in northwest Wichita and Garden Plain. KAKE-TV news posted a photo of one such line with people from "all walks of life"eager to cast a ballot.

There were some hiccups at the polls though, with iPads used by Overland Park poll workers falsely showing that voters were in the wrong place. Mindy Nickles told the Kansas City Star she had to wait about an hour to get her ballot.

"At the time I left, there was still only one check-in iPad available," she told the newspaper. "The line was moving very slowly."

Republicans controlled all four of Kansas' House seats heading into the night, and owned a state government trifecta — the governor's office and majorities in both chambers of the legislature. That changed Tuesday.

Governor

Kansas was among 36 states holding elections for governor. Incumbent Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer, who took over the office following the resignation of Sam Brownback, suffered a stunning defeat to Kobach in the GOP primary by just 343 votes. Kobach, who earned an endorsement from President Donald Trump, deployed a take-no-prisoners style of conservatism, according to The Associated Press. He rode a jeep with a replica machine gun mounted on it at a parade this summer, then mocked critics, calling it a "snowflake meltdown." He also pushed for stricter voter ID laws and promised to crack down on immigration.

Democrats pinned their hopes on state Sen. Laura Kelly, thinking she could capitalize on Kobach's controversial stances and flip the executive position to blue. Five of the last 10 governors have been Democrats, but Trump won the state by more than 20 points. Kelly was declared the winner with 48 percent of the vote after earning endorsements from prominent Republicans such as former Govs. Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, and former Sen. Nancy Kassenbaum.

According to RealClearPolitics, Kobach held a narrow 1-point edge over Kelly in the last four polls. The election forecasters at FiveThirtyEight and the Cook Political Report both called the race a toss-up, but FiveThirtyEight notably gave Kobach a 58.3 percent chance of winning.

House

District 1

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall won a second term against Democratic challenger Alan LaPolice in the heavily Republican district, located in the western and central part of the state. LaPolice is a U.S. Army veteran and former educator, working as both a teacher and superintendent.

Marshall was expected to easily win, with FiveThirtyEight giving him a 99.9 percent chance of winning. The district was considered one of the safest nationwide for Republicans, going red by a wide margin the past two presidential elections.

District 2

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who has held the seat since 2009, opted not to seek re-election despite her district swinging for Trump by 19 points. Fellow Republican Steve Watkins, an Army veteran and engineer, narrowly managed to keep the seat in Republican hands. Democrats targeted the seat and pinned their hopes on candidate Paul Davis, former state House minority leader. Watkins earned the victory with 48 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for Davis.

The district has elected a Republican representative in all but one election since 1994, and the Cook Political Report indicated the district leans right, meaning it went red in the past two presidential elections by at least 10 percentage points.

According to RealClearPolitics, Davis was leading in the polls. He was ahead of Watkins by 4 points in the latest poll and by 1 point in a poll before that. FiveThirtyEight actually gave Davis a 62 percent chance of winning and said the district would likely lean Democratic.

Watkins has said he is pro-life and will protect life "at all costs." He has indicated he supports reducing regulations on businesses as well as protecting the right to bear arms.

Davis supports increasing funding for public education and vows to work with Republicans in Congress to "fix what’s broken in the Affordable Care Act" to stabilize the market and lower premiums. Davis also supports stronger border security.

District 3

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder has held the seat for eight years, but was considered likely to lose his seat this year to Democratic challenger Sharice Davids, an economic adviser and attorney. The district has flipped back and forth in presidential elections, going Republican in 2008 and 2012 and then swinging for the Democrats in 2016 by a single point. Yoder won re-election by 10 points two years ago, but election forecasters and pollsters gave him long odds to win again.

They were right. Davids was declared the winner with about 53 percent of the vote.

According to RealClearPolitics, Davids led by as many as 12 points and FiveThirtyEight gave her an 84.4 percent chance of winning. The Cook Political Report agreed with those sentiments, labeling the race as leaning Democratic.

Yoder supported cutting taxes for middle class families and reducing regulations on small businesses to create jobs and increase paychecks. He also supported returning schools to local control, prioritizing early education programs and restoring choice and competition in the health insurance marketplace.

Davids opposes the GOP tax cuts — calling them a "corporate giveaway" — and said small businesses should be prioritized. She also supported a tax cut for the middle class and wants to fund early childhood education and after school programs. When it comes to health care, Davids supports expanding Medicaid and allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

District 4

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes, who has held the seat since April 2017, won re-election against Democrat James A. Thompson in the right-leaning district located in the southern part of the state.

Estes was expected to cruise to victory. According to the Cook Political Report, the district went red by a decent margin the past two presidential elections and FiveThirtyEight gave him a 99.2 percent chance of winning.

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