Louisville Breaking Records With Over 3,000 New Cases; Our Next Actions Are Crucial

Press release from the City of Louisville:

November 24, 2020

Mayor Greg Fischer, joined by Public Health and Wellness Director Dr. Sarah Moyer, today declared Louisville in a state of ‘deep red’ as the amount of COVID-19 cases escalate daily.

For the second consecutive week, Jefferson County reported more than 3,000 new positive cases, a trend Dr. Moyer urged needed to change course.

In the last two weeks, 1,541 contacts of COVID-19 positive cases became cases themselves. Fifty-eight percent of the contacts who tested positive live with or are intimate partners of positive cases and 17 percent who later tested positive caught it from other family members or co-workers. Dr. Moyer added that before symptoms onset, individuals who test positive go to grocery stores and retail establishments, bars and restaurants, places of employment and healthcare settings when they are likely most infectious.

“We keep breaking records, but these aren’t records of achievement. It means we have too much rapid spread of the virus,” she said.

Expressing his concerns over the rise of cases in Jefferson County and the state of Kentucky, Mayor Fischer supported Governor Andy Beshear’s new temporary restrictions put in place last week. While he wishes the restrictions weren’t necessary, Mayor Fischer said it is essential to stop the spread of the virus.

“Our challenges with COVID-19 are only growing,” he said. “COVID-19 in our city and our state is out of control. We won’t get it under control by wishing or waiting for it to go away. We are not doing what we need to be doing as a city to contain this virus until we get to a vaccine. The only reason for these restrictions is to save lives and save suffering.”

Here are the key data metrics for the week of November 24, 2020:

• There were 3,592 new cases over the previous week.
• Louisville’s rolling two-week average positivity rate is at 6.2 percent.
• Hospitalization data:
  • 21.3% of patients currently hospitalized have COVID-19.
  • 83 patients in ICU with COVID-19 as of November 24, an increase from 75 the week prior.
  • 56 COVID-19 patients on ventilators as of November 24, compared to 45 last week.
• COVID-19 cases are in every ZIP code and almost every part of our community is in the red zone. Remember that you probably interact with people who live in a red zone for COVID.
• Cases are higher in 20-34-year-old demographic at 27.6%.
• Given the high level of community spread, any interaction with members outside the household leaves individuals at greater risk of bringing an infection home. Once one person is infected in a household, it is likely to spread to other members.

Dr. Moyer acknowledged that residents are being asked to make sacrifices right now, especially with the alternative Thanksgiving holiday recommendations to restrict travel and family gatherings outside of the immediate household. She added that as cases are increasing exponentially, we must work to curb the transmission of COVID-19.

“A lot of damage has been done, but we know that the actions we’re taking today are important. Remember, the numbers we are seeing today reflect our actions two weeks ago,” she said. “We all need to comply with the restrictions in place to drastically stop the spread.”

New Co-Immunity Project Data shows spike in rate of infection

Dr. Aruni Bhatnagar, Director of the Christina Lee Brown Environme Institute at the University of Louisville and Dr. Rachel Keith, assistant professor of environmental medicine at the University of Louisville, joined the Mayor to present the latest research from the Co-Immunity projects Phase III community study of COVID-19.

Researchers sent out 30,000 letters throughout Louisville for a random sampling survey to get equal representation for an estimate on the rate of COVID-19 infection in the city. Of the 30,000 letters, Dr. Bhatnagar said 1,000 people agreed to participate in the study. An additional 1,800 volunteered to be tested for sampling as well.

Out of 2,800 participants, the latest data illustrates infection rates in Jefferson County saw a dramatic increase from September to November from 0.2 percent to 2 percent.

Dr. Bhatnagar stated that a 2 percent indication equates to roughly 13,000 people that are infected with the virus in Louisville during the aforementioned time frame, a figure much higher than the 2,800 people identified through the study. Further study of antibody testing – which indicates if someone was infected before – shows that as of November, 45,540 people have been infected with the virus.

“From the data that we gather from people who come forth and get tested, that only represents the tip of the iceberg. This is very alarming and a process that we don’t think is going to abate anytime in the future because of the likelihood of more movement and temperatures plummeting. We have to be extra vigilant.”

Dr. Keith reminded all that the geographical distribution of the virus can change at any moment in the community as it will infect anyone it comes in contact with. She added that while Shively and Northeastern Jefferson County currently show the highest rates of infection, the virus has no boundary.

“You don’t get the infection if you don’t come in contact with it,” Dr. Keith said. “If we limit our opportunities to be around the infection, we won’t have the spread.” She encouraged vigilance in people limiting their movements and who they’re around.

Effect new restrictions can have on saving lives

In collaboration with the Department of Public Health and Wellness, the University of Louisville School of Public Health and the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services, Dr. Seyed Karimi, Health Economist with the department, presented data from the Kentucky Regional Hospital Preparedness report on how compliance with the Governor’s restrictions can affect COVID-19 trends seen in Louisville with regards to hospital capacity in region 3.

Dr. Karimi said based on the current trajectory of cases if everyone were to follow the governor’s current restricted measures in place, by January the region would only face a projected 100 hospitalizations and approximately 900 lives can be saved.

"If there is very high compliance that shows that the virus is very manageable and with two weeks or so we could start a downward trend."

First Responder Data

Currently, 103 members of LMPD, Louisville Fire, Metro EMS, Metro Corrections and the Sheriff’s Office are off-duty due to COVID-19:

• 52 are off with positive tests and in self-isolation
• 25 are off and quarantined due to exposure to someone who tested positive
• 26 are off with symptoms, pending test results

Positive test numbers for first responders/public safety since the incident began:

• 379 positive tests
• 327 have fully recovered and returned to duty

Metro Corrections inmate data:

Total Tested: 4285

Total Positive: 271

Total Recovered: 253

Total currently under medical isolation: 18

Total tests pending: 0

This press release was produced by the City of Louisville. The views expressed here are the author’s own.