Maryland Winter Energy Outlook: Who Could Pay More For Heat

Maryland households that heat with electricity could spend slightly more this winter, while natural gas customers may see significantly lower costs, according to a new federal energy outlook.

Heating oil users face the steepest projected increase. Propane costs are expected to remain about the same or decline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook.

The forecast covers November through March. It is a regional estimate, not a prediction of individual bills, which will depend on weather, household energy use, utility rates and home efficiency.

Although Maryland is commonly described as a Mid-Atlantic state, the Census Bureau places it in the South Atlantic division. The EIA therefore includes Maryland in its South region when calculating the electricity, natural gas and propane estimates.

Electricity Bills Expected To Rise

Southern households that primarily heat with electricity are expected to spend an average of $1,079 from November through March, up 3 percent from last winter, according to the EIA’s regional estimates.

The average residential electricity price in the South is forecast at 15.75 cents per kilowatt-hour, about 4 percent higher than last winter. Consumption is expected to remain essentially unchanged.

The estimate includes all household electricity use, not just space heating. Appliances, water heating, lighting and other uses account for a significant share of winter electric bills, particularly in the South.

Wholesale PJM electricity prices are forecast to average 41 percent higher in 2026 than in 2025. PJM manages the regional grid that includes Maryland. Wholesale prices do not translate directly or immediately into residential rates, but they can affect customer costs over time.

Natural Gas Customers Could Spend Less

Southern households that primarily heat with natural gas are projected to spend an average of $511 this winter, down 15 percent from last winter.

The average residential natural gas price in the South is forecast to fall 16 percent to $14.13 per thousand cubic feet. Consumption is expected to increase about 2 percent, but lower prices should more than offset the additional use.

National natural gas inventories are expected to enter the winter heating season about 2 percent above their five-year average. Strong production and relatively high inventories should help limit price increases even as U.S. liquefied natural gas exports rise, the EIA said.

The forecast does not mean every BGE or Washington Gas customer will receive a bill that is 15 percent lower. Bills also include delivery charges, taxes and other costs that are not directly tied to wholesale gas prices.

Heating Oil Costs Forecast To Jump

Households that use heating oil face the largest expected increase.

The EIA forecasts that heating oil households nationwide will spend an average of $2,115 from November through March, up 21 percent from last winter. The average price is projected to rise 34 percent to $5.26 per gallon.

Reduced global refinery activity has limited the supply of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel. East Coast distillate inventories were 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September and are expected to remain 20 percent to 30 percent below average through the winter.

The forecast assumes households will use about 9 percent less heating oil, partly because the Northeast is expected to have a milder winter than last year. Prices paid by Maryland households will vary by supplier, delivery size and any contract or fuel purchased before winter.

Propane Costs Could Remain Flat

Southern households that heat primarily with propane are forecast to spend an average of $1,164 this winter, essentially unchanged from last winter.

The regional price is projected to average $3.19 per gallon, about 1 percent lower, while consumption is expected to remain steady.

Nationally, propane households are expected to spend about 3 percent less. Wholesale propane and heating oil price changes generally reach retail customers within four to six weeks, according to the EIA.

Winter Weather Remains A Variable

The EIA expects national temperatures this winter to be close to last winter and the average of the previous 10 winters. Temperatures in the South are expected to be similar to last winter.

However, federal forecasters have identified a strong El Niño pattern, which could produce substantial differences from the temperatures assumed in the energy outlook.

A colder-than-expected winter could increase household consumption and put upward pressure on fuel prices. A warmer winter could reduce both.

The EIA plans to update its winter forecast with each monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. Its next update is scheduled for Nov. 10.

Maryland Energy Assistance Is Available Year-Round

Maryland residents may apply year-round through the state’s Office of Home Energy Programs.

The Maryland Energy Assistance Program helps eligible households pay heating costs, including electricity, natural gas, heating oil and propane. The grant is paid directly to the household’s utility or fuel supplier and is available once per program year.

The Electric Universal Service Program provides additional help with electric bills. Maryland also offers arrearage grants of up to $2,000 for past-due electric bills and up to $1,000 for past-due natural gas bills. Applicants generally must owe at least $300 and qualify for the related energy-assistance program.

Income eligibility is based on household size and gross income received during the previous 30 days. Current monthly limits range from $2,660 for one person to $5,500 for a four-person household.

Households receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or Temporary Cash Assistance benefits in Maryland are categorically eligible and generally do not need to submit a separate energy-assistance application or additional documentation.

Residents may apply through Maryland Benefits, call 800-332-6347 or contact their local energy-assistance office.

Other Utility And Weatherization Programs

BGE customers facing a shut-off or disconnection may seek help through the Fuel Fund of Maryland. The nonprofit helps qualifying residential customers pay BGE balances, although recipients may be required to pay a portion of the bill. Funding is limited.

Washington Gas customers can find information about state grants, the Washington Area Fuel Fund, weatherization services and payment plans on the utility’s Maryland assistance page.

Maryland also offers no- and low-cost weatherization programs for income-eligible homeowners and renters. Services may include insulation, air sealing, heating-system repairs and other improvements intended to lower energy use.

Households that apply for state energy assistance are generally screened for weatherization services unless they opt out. Pepco customers may also qualify for free improvements through the utility’s Income Eligible Energy Efficiency Program.

Practical Ways To Reduce Bills

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Saver guide recommends several steps:

• Seal gaps around windows, doors, attic openings, outlets and plumbing penetrations. Sealing uncontrolled air leaks can reduce heating and cooling costs by an estimated 10 percent to 20 percent.
• Lower the thermostat while sleeping or away. Reducing the setting by 7 to 10 degrees for eight hours a day can save as much as 10 percent annually. Heat-pump users should use a thermostat designed for their system to avoid activating more expensive backup resistance heat.
• Clean or replace furnace and heat-pump filters regularly and keep registers clear of furniture and other obstructions.
• Check accessible ductwork for leaks, disconnected sections and damaged insulation, particularly in attics, garages and crawl spaces.
• Set the water heater to 120 degrees when appropriate for the household, repair leaking faucets and use less hot water. Water heating typically accounts for about 18 percent of household energy use.
• Ask the utility about energy audits, efficiency rebates, payment plans and budget billing. Budget billing does not reduce annual energy use, but it can spread seasonal costs more evenly across the year.