Gov. Hogan Earns Strong Job Approval From Maryland Voters: Poll

ANNAPOLIS, MD — Another poll brings more confirmation that most Marylanders like Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and the job he's doing in Annapolis. The bitter political bickering between President Donald Trump and Democrats has prompted several GOP members of Congress to retire, but Marylanders say Hogan has earned another term in office and successfully repudiated the views and policies of President Trump, according to the latest Goucher Poll.

The Goucher Poll released Tuesday asked Maryland residents about their opinions toward Governor Larry Hogan, the direction of the state, President Trump and Congress.

Gov. Hogan’s standing with Marylanders remains unchanged since the September 2017 Goucher Poll. Sixty-one percent of Marylanders approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor, 18 percent disapprove, and 19 percent say they don’t know.

“Governor Hogan’s re-election chances in blue Maryland are closely tied to the public perception that he is a moderate Republican who has distanced himself from Washington politics,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “The specter of an unpopular president with shared party affiliation still looms as a potential political problem for Mr. Hogan as about a third of Maryland voters say their views toward the president will influence their vote for governor.”

Views On Gov. Hogan, 2018 Gubernatorial Election

Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Hogan including his ideological leanings and his distance from President Trump.
• Forty-six percent of Marylanders think that Hogan is a moderate, while 29 percent see him as a conservative, 7 percent view the governor as a liberal. 17 percent say they don’t know.
• Forty-seven percent of Maryland residents believe that Hogan has distanced himself about the right amount from President Trump. Twenty-two percent of respondents believe Hogan has distanced himself too little from Trump and 10 percent think he has distanced himself too much from the president. Twenty percent say they don’t know.

Marylanders who indicated that they were interested in the 2018 election and registered to vote in the state were asked whether they would vote to re-elect the governor or vote for a Democratic candidate. Forty-seven percent of Marylanders say they are leaning toward or will definitely vote to re-elect Hogan and 43 percent say they are leaning toward or will definitely vote for a different candidate.

When asked about the single most important issue for determining their choice for governor, 28 percent of respondents say the economy and jobs, 24 percent say education, and 13 percent say health care. 11 percent cite racial and social justice issues as the most important factor, while eight percent cited taxes.

Maryland voters were divided on how much influence their views toward President Trump would have on their vote for governor. 38 percent say that their views toward President Trump would influence their vote for governor some or a lot and 60 percent say their views toward the president would have no or only a little influence on their vote.

Direction of the State, Economy

Twenty-two percent of Marylanders identify economic issues—including jobs, taxes, economic growth, and the budget—and 19 percent identify education as the most important issues facing Maryland today. Twelve percent consider crime and criminal justice to be the most important issue.

In September 2017, 55 percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 31 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track—the lowest point during Hogan’s tenure in office. That number has rebounded; 62 percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 29 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track.

Attitudes toward Maryland’s economic situation—an important factor in determining the outcome of gubernatorial elections—remain positive; 60 percent currently hold a mostly positive view of the Maryland economy and 31 percent hold a mostly negative view.

Views On GOP Tax Plan, President Trump, US Senators

Marylanders were asked whether they expected the recent changes to the federal tax code to increase, decrease, or have no effect on the amount of taxes they will pay over the next couple years. Twenty-six percent think their taxes will decrease, 44 percent think their taxes will increase, and 18 percent think the changes to the tax code will have no effect.

Twenty-seven percent of Marylanders approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States and 68 percent disapprove. In February 2017, President Trump’s approval rating in Maryland was 29 percent.

Congress continues to earn poor job approval ratings from Maryland residents. Only 11 percent approve of the job Congress is doing while 83 percent disapprove.

Respondents were also asked to rate the job their two U.S. Senators are doing:
• Senator Chris Van Hollen: 37 percent approve, 27 percent disapprove, 34 percent don’t know
• Senator Ben Cardin: 44 percent approve, 30 percent disapprove, 24 percent don’t know

Other Recent Polls, Hogan's Election Challengers

The Goucher Poll has results similar to a quarterly Morning Consult poll released Feb. 1 that showed Hogan holding a 66 percent job approval rating among Maryland voters, retaining his rank as the second most popular governor in the country for the fourth straight quarter.

While Democrats hold most elected statewide and national offices in Maryland, Hogan's centrist positions helped him win voters from both parties four years ago, and make him a tough candidate to defeat in his re-election bid in November. Hogan has never been a fan of President Trump's, denouncing some of then-candidate Trump's comments and positions before the presidential election, and writing in his father's name for president.

GOP control of Congress and governor's mansions nationwide could be at stake in the November 2018 mid-term elections — and Maryland's gubernatorial race is one of the top 10 seats in play, according to The Washington Post. The newspaper named Republican Gov. Larry Hogan's bid for a second term as the No. 10 gubernatorial race nationwide among governor posts most likely to flip parties.

A January 2018 survey by Gonzales Media and Research Services showed Hogan's approval rating at about 71 percent among likely voters in 2018, which is among the highest of Hogan's term in office, says The Washington Post. Hogan has double-digit leads in the Gonzales poll compared with the top three potential Democratic challengers: Prince George's County Executive Rushern L. Baker III, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and former NAACP president Ben Jealous.

Hogan's highest approval rating measured by the Goucher Poll — 70 percent — was registered September 2016. The high poll numbers came despite attempts by opponents to tie him to the unpopular policies of President Trump — Hogan didn't support Trump and refused to vote for him in November.

"This is one of several blue states that Republicans now control, and it won't necessarily be easy for Democrats to wrestle it back," according to the Post. "Polls show that two-thirds of the state approve of Gov. Larry Hogan (R), and Democrats are mired in a crowded and messy primary to unseat him. But anti-Trump sentiment in this liberal state may be too strong for even a politically skilled governor like Hogan to overcome. Democrats, meanwhile, hold a near-record low. Which means in 2018, the only place to go may be up for Democrats."

The 2018 governor's race has Hogan facing a large field of Democrats, including Baker, Kamenetz, Jealous, state Sen. Richard S. Madaleno Jr., attorney James Shea, tech entrepreneur Alec Ross, and former Michelle Obama aide Krishanti Vignarajah. Baker and Jealous are seeking to become the state's first African-American governor.

Photo: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, courtesy of the governor's office