Timing Shifts For Severe Storms Targeting MD: See Latest Forecast

A strong frontal system will bring heavy rain and severe weather to Maryland earlier than anticipated on Thursday, with damaging winds and large hail likely to be the primary threats.

According to the National Weather Service, some rain showers will bring much-needed precipitation to parts of the region through the morning hours. Most of these showers have occurred or are expected to occur across the northern half of the Alleghenies, western and central Maryland and northwestern Virginia.

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As the front drags across the state, temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid-90s east of the Blue Ridge. Heat index values could exceed 100 degrees.

The heat, combined with effects from increasing humidity and wind shear, could spawn strong to severe thunderstorms across most of the Baltimore region Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.

"Timing of strong to severe thunderstorms seems more probable late morning to mid-afternoon in the northwest and north-central areas (of the forecast region), while the afternoon hours seem more legitimate farther east and southeast into the metros and northern half of Virginia," forecasters with the NWS Baltimore/Washington Office wrote. "The southeastern zones, including southern Maryland, would be more probable later this afternoon and early evening."

The main threats from the storms will be damaging wind gusts over 55 mph and large hail. Lightning may also become a big factor with the strongest thunderstorms.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect until 1 p.m. for the shoreline in Anne Arundel County, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters said up to one-half foot of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas is possible due to tidal flooding.

"At 2.8 feet, flooding of some of the parking area near Dock Street in Annapolis may occur, with water surrounding the Alex Haley Memorial," forecasters wrote.

After a mainly quiet weekend across the region, there is an
increasing chance of unsettled weather returning late Sunday into Monday.

As a result, showers and thunderstorms are back in the forecast, mainly during the overnight hours Sunday and continuing into Monday.

Here's a look at the detailed forecast for the Baltimore region:

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before noon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers between 2am and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 70. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a slight chance of showers between 9am and 11am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. Light northwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely between 8am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 87. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.