Coronavirus Peak Coming: Harford County Health Officer

BEL AIR, MD — The new coronavirus may peak in Maryland next weekend, according to Harford County Health Officer Dr. Russell Moy. The peak is when demand for hospital resources will be highest.

"These numbers change every few days depending on additional data coming in," Moy said in a virtual briefing Tuesday night before the County Council. "As of today ... [the] Maryland peak is projected to be around April the 18th."

His projection was based on University of Washington data he noted was cited by White House officials in their daily coronavirus news conferences.

Coronavirus cases are slated to peak in Maryland on Friday, April 17, the projections indicated Wednesday afternoon.

Addressing the surge of coronavirus patients that day would require 2,800 hospital beds, which the model shows will be available in Maryland.

Around 550 ICU beds and ventilators will be required to handle the influx, according to the model, which projects a shortage of nearly 300 ICU beds. Ventilator data in Maryland was not provided.

For updates on coronavirus in Harford County, get Patch news alerts.

Another model, created by Penn Medicine, shows coronavirus peaking in mid-May, according to Moy.

"There are so many different opinions on these projection models," Moy said. "Last month, a state health department official gave a briefing and said they thought the cases would peak in July."

Researchers put caveats on their projections, with words like "uncertainty," since the data can shift daily.

"Projections are just projections," Moy said. "They give us a sense of how fast a surge may come, but that can be greatly altered by how seriously people take social distancing."

Social distancing is putting physical space between people, by maintaining at least 6 feet between one another and avoiding gatherings.

"If it's not taken seriously, the peak could have a steep surge within a few weeks," Moy said. "That could probably result in a lot more deaths. But if social distancing is taken seriously ... the number of deaths may be greatly reduced."

Social Distancing Guidance

A week ago, there had been 18 deaths in Maryland from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, Moy said. As of Tuesday night, he added, there were 103.

Coronavirus deaths had risen to 124, Maryland health officials reported Wednesday morning.

"The trend is rapidly escalating," Moy said.

So far, there are 86 cases of the new coronavirus in Harford County, state health officials say, and no Harford County residents have died from the disease.

As more people in the United States have developed COVID-19, Moy said new data prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to change its guidance on social distancing measures. For example, after finding that up to 25 percent of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms and that those who do have symptoms can be contagious for up to 48 hours before the onset, he said the CDC recommended cloth face coverings in areas where there is community transmission, which he said was the case across Maryland.

The main symptoms of the coronavirus are cough, fever or shortness of breath, according to the CDC.

"It is far more infectious than originally thought," Moy said. "Anyone with symptoms or without symptoms can be infectious."

To reduce the spread of the virus, Gov. Larry Hogan issued a stay-at-home directive March 30 ordering Marylanders to limit their travel to essential jobs or purposes, like grocery shopping.

"People [must] take this seriously or very bad things could happen," Moy said.

"It takes time for social distancing to work," said Moy, who reported he was "encouraging people to strictly stay at home ... unless you need to go outside for something, unless it is truly a matter of health and life," such as going to the grocery store or picking up a prescription.

"Even under the best circumstances," Moy said, "chances of viral spread are very high, and our main goal right now is to slow the spread."

Added Moy, who presented to the County Council via teleconference: "With more research ... they're beginning to realize just speaking is enough to transmit it."

Related:

• MD Coronavirus Peak Estimate Released By Health Expert
• Harford County Declares State Of Emergency Due To Coronavirus
• MD Coronavirus: Governor Hogan Issues Stay-At-Home Order