Forest Hill's Jeff Judge in US News: The Social Security Number Worth Actually Worrying About

By Jeff Judge, CFP®, AEP®, ChFC®, CLU®, Managing Partner, Chesapeake Financial Planners, Forest Hill, MD.

When US News & World Report called me this week about the new Wharton Social Security analysis, my first reaction was the same one I have every time this comes up: the coverage is focused on the wrong number.

Wharton put the OASI trust fund depletion at February 2033. The official trustees report says Q4 2032. A difference of a few months. And that gap became the story.

Here is what I told reporter Jenna Romaine, and what I tell clients who come in having read the same headline: a few months on the depletion projection changes almost nothing about what you should do. Plan as if your benefit could be reduced, not eliminated. If Congress acts before the fund runs dry, you have built a stronger plan for no reason at all. That is not a bad outcome.

The number worth actually planning around is this: under current law, if the fund depletes with no Congressional action, benefits could be cut by roughly 20 to 24% across the board. That is a real, specific number. It affects how aggressively you fund your 401(k) right now. It shapes whether Roth conversions make sense in your 50s and early 60s when income may be lower. It determines how much of your retirement income plan can safely rest on Social Security versus your own savings.

For pre-retirees here in Harford County and the Baltimore metro, that question is more urgent than the headline date. Most of the people I sit across from are 10 to 15 years from retirement. The depletion date is within their window. The planning work to handle it starts now, not later.

The headlines will keep moving. The underlying math, and what you do about it, does not change much with them.

This piece builds on "Don't Panic Yet? What Wharton's New Social Security Timeline Means for Your Retirement," published in US News & World Report (June 2026).

Jeff Judge, CFP®, AEP®, ChFC®, CLU®, is Managing Partner at Chesapeake Financial Planners in Forest Hill, MD. Book an intro call.