What Will Fall Weather Be Like In MA? NOAA Releases Seasonal Outlook

As summer comes to an end and pumpkin spice offerings hit store shelves, fall is just around the corner.

But while the calendar is about to turn, New England weather may not be ready to follow suit.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center has released its three-month, seasonal weather outlook for fall. The Northeast, including all of Massachusetts, has a 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in September, October and November.

In its seasonal precipitation outlook, Massachusetts has a 33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation, while the southern half has equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal precipitation.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal temperature outlook for September through November 2026. (NOAA)

But that doesn't necessarily mean Bay State residents should expect three straight months of unusually warm weather.

Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center, said the outlook represents only a "modest tilt" toward warmer-than-normal conditions over the three-month period and doesn't predict individual variations within the season.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal precipitation outlook for September through November 2026. (NOAA)

A particularly strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean has made headlines, and meteorologists are keeping an eye on the climatological pattern as it continues to develop.

But its influence on New England weather is typically limited during the fall.

Historically, El Niño years have shown little temperature signal across the Northeast during the fall, Handel said. There is some tendency toward drier conditions across much of New England, but that signal is also relatively weak.

The climate pattern could become more important as we head into winter.

El Niño typically has a stronger influence on winter weather, and the Climate Prediction Center's outlook shows increasing chances for above-normal temperatures this winter. The precipitation outlook also shifts toward wetter conditions as the season progresses, with El Niño tending to favor an East Coast storm track.

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