The much-talked-about El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean has officially reached "super" strength, and forecasters said Thursday that it could deliver a much different winter in Massachusetts than the long-duration cold and ice of recent years.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center put the chances of that happening at around 60 percent for the overlapping October-December and November-January periods. The probability of a strong to very strong El Niño remains above 79 percent through January-March 2027.
Forecasters with AccuWeather, a private weather company, said the El Niño could rival or surpass the strongest events recorded since 1950. The climate pattern has reached "super status" only six times in 75 times
According to AccuWeather's latest winter outlook, Massachusetts residents can expect a warmer winter than recent years, while still having the potential for a major snowstorm in the heart of the season.
"While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February."
The winter effects of the climate pattern appear to be settling in one to two months early, El Niño expert Eric Webb told The Weather Company.
Albuquerque, New Mexico; Flagstaff, Arizona; and West Palm Beach, Florida, had their wettest fall to date through Nov. 4, while Chicago, Dallas, Houston and Nashville were among dozens of central U.S. cities having their warmest.
While this weekend could bring an early snow to parts of Massachusetts, next week's temperatures could challenge 70 degrees as part of a very mild November overall.
El Niño involves unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and accompanying changes in atmospheric circulation. NOAA said the ocean and atmosphere both showed the pattern continuing to strengthen in October.
Federal forecasters expect strengthening to continue before El Niño begins weakening in early 2027. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of a wetter winter across the southern United States and a milder winter across much of the North, but NOAA cautioned those outcomes aren't guaranteed.
Northeast and New England: Much of the Northeast could have a milder winter with fewer Arctic outbreaks. AccuWeather forecasts below-average snow but says East Coast cities could still get a consequential storm, particularly in late January or February.
Mid-Atlantic: Below-average snowfall would still leave room for a major East Coast storm later in winter.
Midwest and Great Lakes: Warmer conditions and fewer Arctic intrusions could reduce heating needs.
Northern Plains: A milder winter is favored as El Niño limits Arctic outbreaks.
Southern Plains and Texas: An active southern storm track favors wetter conditions toward the Gulf Coast.
Southeast and Florida: Wetter weather is favored along the Gulf Coast. Florida faces an elevated risk of severe storms and tornadoes.
California and West Coast: Additional atmospheric rivers could bring flooding, landslides and substantial mountain snow.
Pacific Northwest: AccuWeather's December-February map favors drier conditions across Washington, Oregon and parts of Idaho, with the stronger Pacific storm track directed farther south.
Southwest and interior West: Wetter conditions are favored across California, the Southwest and into the southern Plains. The map places the northern Rockies closer to the warmer northern tier.
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