La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For MA

MASSACHUSETTS — After a summer of dry weather and warm temperatures, Bay Staters may find themselves wondering about the upcoming winter.

Will it be cold and rainy or mild and dry, plunging us further into drought?

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The answer may lie with La Niña, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced this month. It will also vary depending on where you live in the state. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter of 2025-26, meaning there is at least a 50% chance of a weak La Niña developing later this year.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cools down more than usual. It typically causes the northern United States to be colder and wetter than usual, and the southern states to be warmer and drier than usual.

In New England, it could mean a warmer winter with the Climate Prediction Center calling for a 35 to 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures across southern New England and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in Maine.

Precipitation forecasts are calling for a near-normal levels of rain and snow in New England.

El Niño, on the other hand, usually means the reverse. The central and eastern Pacific warms up more than usual, resulting in warmer weather inthe north, wetter weather in the south, and often large, unpredictable storms.

"ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October)," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced. "Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral."

According to their Aug. 14 predictions, experts say that there is around a 55% chance La Niña will
develop any time from September to November.

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from California’s Central Coast to Florida and up the entire East Coast, is moderately likely to see above-average temperatures this winter. For much of the Midwest, it is equally likely to be above or below normal. Just Washington state and southeast Alaska are likely to see below-average temperatures.

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Bay Area in a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, is moderately likely to see below-average precipitation. Pockets of the Midwest, including Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, and much of Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska, are 33-40% likely to see above-average participation. The rest of the country remains uncertain.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain.

"Nothing is guaranteed in this business," said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.