Model Projects 4,700 More MA Coronavirus Deaths Through January

MASSACHUSETTS — A highly cited coronavirus projection model was recently updated to include estimates on how the pandemic could impact Massachusetts through the end of January.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is now estimating deaths will hit 14,210 by Feb. 1.

As of Wednesday, there have been 9,429 coronavirus deaths in the state. The authors estimate Massachusetts will end the year with 12,942 COVID-19-related deaths.

The report estimates that state's daily death rate will rise over 50 in mid-December, for the first time since June. Currently, the state reports 10 to 20 deaths per day. With no policy changes, the daily death rate would come back down to the low-30s by the end of January, according to the projection.

If Massachusetts eases public health mandates, that number could skyrocket to over 200 and there could be nearly 20,000 deaths in the state by the end of January, the researchers project.

Overall, the authors are predicting the United States will experience 394,693 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 1, from 215,000 now.

"At the national level, daily cases remain constant and deaths have declined slightly. Several states in the Midwest have begun the fall/winter surge," the authors conclude. "Given some improvements in components IHME's modeling, we expect the number of daily deaths to reach 2,250 in mid-January. The fall/winter surge timing in each state will depend on actions by individuals and the speed of reaction to the surge by different governors or other local government officials."

The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

The widely-cited IHME model is not without its detractors. Researchers writing in The Annals of Internal Medicine criticized the simulation for its grounding "not on transmission dynamics but on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis." The researchers chalked the popularity of the IHME's work up to our collective fear of the unknown, noting the "appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead."

Still, the IHME model has been relatively accurate so far; in May, the researchers projected 8,949 Massachusetts deaths by Aug. 4. The real number was 8,658.

>>>Read their full analysis for MA here.