Travel From Canada To US, Including Barnstable, Has Fallen More Than Estimated: Study

A new study of cellphone data shows visitors from Canada are coming here less often, and spending less time when they do.

By William Hall, Patch Staff

May 12, 2026 9:08 am EDT | Updated May 12, 2026 9:16 am EDT

BARNSTABLE, MA — As relations between the U.S. and its northern neighbor have soured, Canadians have slashed their travel to American destinations even more than originally thought – and a Cape Cod community has been hit especially hard.

A study just published by University of Toronto researchers shows Canadian travel to the U.S. has plummeted by a median of 42 percent over the past year, far more than the 25 percent suggested in most previous estimates.

The town of Barnstable has seen Canadian travel nose-dive by more than half, 54.4 percent. That ranks as the second-sharpest decline in New England, after Providence, Rhode Island, and the 19th-sharpest in the U.S.

Other New England destinations popular with Canadian tourists and business travelers have seen similar fall-offs, but not as extreme as on the Cape.

Boston ranked 32nd for its decline; Manchester, New Hampshire, was 49th; Portland, Maine, came in 58th.

Barnstable was the only Cape Cod destination analyzed in the study.

Fuller picture of Canadian fall-off

The Toronto study analyzed geolocation data for Canadian cellphone use from March 2025 to March 2026 in nearly 300 U.S. cities and towns, and compared the information to that for the previous one-year period.

The researchers concluded that “border crossing data is not capturing the full drop in Canadian business and trade-related travel” and that “when Canadians travel to the U.S., they are visiting fewer locations and staying for less time than they used to.”

The chilly relationship between the United States and its second-largest trading partner, Canada, has been driven by Trump's imposition of tariffs and remarks such as his suggestion that the country should become the 51st U.S. state.

Forbes magazine in February estimated that the U.S. economy has lost $4.5 billion due to declining visits– and that number was based only on border-crossing data.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, saw the sharpest decline overall in Canadian travel, the University of Toronto study said, ranking first with a whopping 65.4 percent loss.

You can read the study here.

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