Does 100 Wins in a Season Result in a World Series Title?

The Boston Red Sox have won 8 games in a row through Saturday June 11^th.  After a 2-10 start to the 2011 season they have gone 36-16, which is a .692 winning percentage.  Their current record is 38-26, which is a .594 winning percentage.  They have played 64 games and have 98 games left.  The buzz about the Red Sox in the Greater Boston area is filled with talk of the team winning 100 games or more for the season.

To win 100 games the Red Sox have to win 62 more.  They have to go at least 62-36, which is .633 winning percentage the rest of the season.  They are on pace to go 68-30 the rest of the season, a .694 winning percentage, which would give them 106 wins and 56 losses.

This would be quite an accomplishment, as this would be the most games the franchise has ever won in a single season, and only 18 teams have won 106 or more games in an individual season in major league baseball history.

But does winning 100 games or more in a season result in a World Series Championship?

There have been 96 instances in Major League Baseball history that a team has won 100 games in an individual season.

• 63 times the team made it to the World Series = 65.6%
• 34 times the team won the World Series = 35.4%
• 29 times the team lost the World Series = 30.2%
• 12 times the team lost in League Championship Series = 12.5%
• 9 times the team lost in League Division Series = 9.3%
• 7 times the team finished 2^nd in their league or division and didn’t make the postseason = 7.2%
• 5 times there was no World Series played that year = 5.2%.  1892, 1898, 1899, 1902, 1904.

Therefore, 62 times the team that won 100 or more games in a season has not won the World Series, which is 64.5% of the time, which is almost two-thirds of the occurrences.

Based on the way they have played the last 52 games, the Red Sox are on pace to win over 100 games this year, 106 as I said.  If they do, they will most likely at least make it to the World Series, which would be fantastic.  But based on this information, I think I’d be happier, and I little more comfortable, if they only won 99 games.