James' Departure Opens Up A Political Battleground In Michigan's 10th Congressional District

Michigan Advance

2026-10-28

U.S. Rep. John James’ announcement that he would be leaving Congress to seek a new role as governor of Michigan sparked concern and frustration among party leadership over who would succeed the two-term representative in the southeast Michigan swing district.

Encompassing southern Macomb County and a sliver of Oakland County that includes Rochester and Rochester Hills, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report initially rated Michigan’s 10th Congressional District as “lean Republican” but has shifted its assessment to “toss-up” meaning either party has a chance to win the seat.

In August, Republicans nominated U.S. Army Capt. Michael Bouchard Jr., the son of Oakland County Sheriff and former state Sen. Mike Bouchard, as James’ potential successor. Christina Hines, a former prosecutor in Wayne and Washtenaw counties, heads the Democratic ticket.

While Bouchard carries the backing of President Donald Trump, U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Republican officials including former Gov. John Engler, Democrats at the state and national level are determined to claim control of the district, with U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) joining Hines for a campaign event earlier this month.

In an interview with Michigan Advance, Jason Roe, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and Republican political strategist working with U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R-Charlotte) campaign said the seat would likely still have its “lean Republican” rating had James decided to pursue reelection.

He pointed to multiple factors that made the district more competitive, including the open seat and the fact that both candidates were pursuing their first congressional bid.

“I think to call it a toss up is fair, but I still think at the end of the day it is a Republican seat,” Roe said.

If Bouchard’s campaign is going to pull out a victory, Republicans need to do a better job of conveying that Hines is someone on the political left, Roe said.

“Even when Macomb in that part of Metro Detroit was Democrat, it was always a very conservative Democrat,” Roe said, pointing to former state Sen. Gilbert DiNello, who identified as a Democrat for most of his political career before switching parties in 1992, as one example.

While Democratic candidates of the past were opposed to abortion, supporters of the Second Amendment and more culturally conservative, Roe said the Democrats of today are not those Democrats.

“But guess what? Macomb County is still those people,” he said.

However, Bouchard, like many other congressional candidates, faces headwinds in the form of the war in Iran and President Donald Trump’s 31% approval rating.

Over the course of the campaign, Hines and her supporters have sought to paint Bouchard as a rubber stamp for Trump’s policies, pointing to an Inside Elections article from Feb. 19, prior to the start of the war with Iran, where Bouchard was unable to point to any areas where he has disagreed with the president.

“Mike Bouchard doesn’t have any ideas of his own,” Democratic political consultant and Sterling Heights councilman Michael Radtke told the Advance. “He absorbs other people’s. And one thing he’s done is he’s tied himself to the boat anchor that is Trump, and he’s tossed himself over there into Lake Michigan. Sorry, Lake America.”

While Bouchard’s campaign did not respond to multiple emailed requests for an interview, he told The Detroit News’ Political Insider podcast that he would like to see an end to the U.S.’s trade conflict with Canada and to find a way to end the war in Iran “that makes sure that terrorists don’t have nuclear weapons and that gas prices come down very quickly.”

He did not provide a direct answer when asked whether he would support a war powers resolution to halt military action in Iran.

“I’d have to look at what the actual legislation is. I mean, I’m not going to comment on a hypothetical,” Bouchard told The Detroit News.

Roe told Michigan Advance he was skeptical over how much Bouchard’s ties to the president would hurt his campaign, saying that a Trump endorsement was baked into the Republican brand.

“I think anyone knows that the Republican president supports Republican candidates and vice versa. They’re in the same party,” Roe said. “If you hate Trump so much that you’re going to vote for a Democrat, I don’t know that Trump being publicly supportive of that Republican or not makes a difference.”

Although Republicans have delivered on some of their 2024 campaign promises, like cracking down on immigration, Roe said these gains will likely be overshadowed by the war in Iran.

“There was a lot of promise out there, and then all of a sudden we woke up one day and we were at war,” Roe said, noting that the interruptions to the global oil supply that followed and the downstream effects have been disastrous for most households.

Candidates running in an open seat can also position themselves as change agents, Roe said, noting that both Hines and Bouchard were both taking that approach.

As a result, Bouchard may not carry as much baggage as a sitting member of Congress would, Roe explained.

“Mike Bouchard does not own any of the decisions of this current Congress,” Roe said. “He’d start with a clean slate, and you know I think no matter what happens in this election, we’re going to see a pretty seismic shift in what happens in Washington over the next two years.”

While speaking with the Advance, Radtke called Bouchard’s ability to reach voters on issues like grocery and housing prices into question given that Bouchard had returned from combat deployment last October. On the other hand, Hines has kids and understands how hard times are for families, Radtke said.

“It costs us over $90 now to fill our minivan up, and our utility bills are higher than ever,” Hines said in an interview with Michigan Advance. “Costs are like issue number one, two and three for pretty much everybody in our district.”

Additionally, Bouchard’s lack of a plan around Social Security was a no-go for working people in Macomb County, Radtke said, pointing to the Detroit Free Press’ endorsement of Hines which said Social Security was “just one of many policy matters Bouchard was unable to address” in an interview with the editorial board.

“People who are out here at the assembly line, their hands are hurting, their knees are hurting, their backs are hurting,” Radtke said, calling the idea that these people could work a few more years “a fantasy.”

“Hard work breaks your body,” Radtke said.

Hines said ensuring the program was fully funded was a key passion of hers, joking that she “might be the only 36-year-old in the country that’s obsessed with Social Security.”

There is only about five more years until the Social Security Trust fund dries up, Hines told the Advance, resulting in an automatic 22% cut to benefits that Hines said is a matter of life and death for some folks in her district.

“We have people that live exclusively on Social Security, and we could fully fund it for at least 35 years by simply removing the loophole that allows the richest people in this country to not pay their fair share into it,” Hines said.

Bouchard’s campaign website lists Medicare and Social Security as among his top priorities, stating “You paid into these safety-net programs and they need to be there for you. I will always protect Medicare and Social Security. We need to root out the waste and the fraud that threatens these critical programs.”

Radtke also pointed to Bouchard’s residence in Oakland County’s Rochester Hills as another factor working against him, with working-class Macomb County making up the vast majority of the district.

Roe offered a similar assessment noting that “folks in Macomb don’t much trust anyone that’s not from Macomb.”

While there is a threshold to cross in order to gain Macomb residents’ respect, Roe pointed to Bouchard’s military experience.

“It goes back to service and I think that’s the kind of DNA that you see in Macomb,” Roe said.

If Hines takes home the win, Republicans can lay the blame at Trump’s feet, Roe said, but if Bouchard wins the 10th District, a redefinition may be in order.

“I think it’ll shake its reputation as being a swing area permanently,” Roe said.

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