Three-Way Dynamic Among Johnson, James, Cox Plays Out At Michigan Up North GOP Dinner

Michigan Advance

May 4, 2026

MACKINAW CITY — While Michigan Republicans from the Straits area enjoyed a packed house at their annual Lincoln Day dinner event Friday, several schisms within the party were on full display.

The largest of those was the dynamic playing out in the gubernatorial contest between the insurgent and ascending Perry Johnson and U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township. Both Johnson and James were invited to the event, along with gubernatorial hopeful and former attorney general Mike Cox.

Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township and former pastor Ralph Rebandt were not invited. Organizers told Michigan Advance on Friday that Nesbitt and Rebandt were not viewed as viable candidates and were not offered an invitation.

As some have come to expect in the gubernatorial race, James did not attend. Organizers were told that James had another obligation with an event to support the state House majority in its effort to hold the chamber this year.

The crowd at the Straits Area Lincoln Day dinner in Mackinaw City, Mich., included elected officials, prominent Michigan Republican Party members and donors. May 1, 2026 | Photo by Ben Solis/Michigan Advance

Social media, however, gave insight into James’ whereabouts. On Friday, while the Straits Area GOP event was taking place, James was in Saginaw as a special guest for state Rep. Timmy Beson (R-Bay City)’s “brat fest” fundraiser. Later that evening, James appeared at an event with members of the Police Officers Association of Michigan.

James also was making his rounds up north Saturday, appearing at the Alpena Lincoln Day dinner event.

Although James was clearly campaigning around the state, his brand suffered to some degree with those in attendance at the Straits Area event in Mackinaw City. A straw poll surveying more than 150 guests placed James in second place behind Johnson – who showed up in full force at the dinner with his campaign and communications team and his flashy tour bus in tow. The bus was parked conspicuously in front of Audie’s Restaurant, where the event was held, and attendees had to pass it and his team as they entered the restaurant.

In that straw poll, Johnson received 65 votes, James received 45 votes, and Cox received 32 votes.

“These results provide an important early snapshot of Up North’s sentiment at a pivotal moment in the gubernatorial race,” said Friends of Up North chairman Melanie Greenfield in a statement issued with the poll results. “Tonight’s attendees represent some of the most engaged anywhere in Up North.”

Striking, too, was the lack of mention of James from his best surrogate at the event — U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman of Watersmeet — who attended and gave remarks. There was a prevailing sense that Bergman was simply reading the room, as some had been miffed that James was again a no show at a well-attended GOP event.

Cox appeared to be the odd man out among the gubernatorial candidates who attended. The straw poll was collected throughout the evening but wrapped before the speaking portion of the event.

Aside from Johnson and Cox, who both gave speeches, a platform was also provided for U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers of White Lake, attorney general and secretary of state nominees Doug Lloyd and Anthony Forlini, respectively, Michigan State University Board of Regents candidate Roger Victory, and Michigan Supreme Court nominee Iosco County Circuit Judge Casandra Morse-Bills.

But the feeling in the room among organizers was that Cox, who gave a rousing stump speech, might have fared better in the straw poll if it had been conducted after speeches.

On Saturday, Cox’s team noted in an email that a gubernatorial debate event was held on Friday in Delta Township’s city of Gladstone, located in the Upper Peninsula. The event also conducted a straw poll that put Cox in first place with 42 votes. Johnson came in fourth in that poll with 21 votes, and James landed in last with a single digit; just two attendees voted for him.

Although straw polls are by nature highly unscientific, the two surveys indicate a divide between the mostly activist class that attends debates and the donor and political class that attended the Straits Area GOP event.

Republican gubernatorial primary candidate and former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox speaks with potential voters and donors during the Straits Area Lincoln Day dinner in Mackinaw City, Mich. May 1, 2026 | Photo by Ben Solis/Michigan Advance

“What I and many others, certainly a majority of attendees, care most about is electability: Who can actually win?” organizer Dennis Lennox told the Advance. “Mike Cox has won statewide twice with Democrat Jennifer Granholm at the top of the ticket. John James has lost statewide twice, though maybe if the stars align, he could win on a third try. Perry Johnson, meanwhile, has the resources to fund the kind of operation that would carry down-ballot Republicans across the finish line who might otherwise lose.”

Lennox said one thing is becoming clear to him: It’s a three-horse race.

“Cox has the record, James has central casting appeal and Johnson has the resources and organizational muscle,” Lennox added.

It was that mode of thinking that led organizers to decide not to extend an invitation to Nesbitt and Rebandt. In the straw poll conducted Friday in Mackinaw City, Nesbitt garnered 25 votes of the 167-vote share. No one voted for Rebandt.

Contrast that to the Gladstone straw poll, and the differences are striking. Behind Cox, who came in first place, was Rebandt with 37 votes (unsurprising because the former pastor lives up north), and Nesbitt in third with 23 votes.

The Michigan Advance, a hard-hitting, nonprofit news site, covers politics and policy across the state of Michigan through in-depth stories, blog posts, and social media updates, as well as top-notch progressive commentary. The Advance is part of States Newsroom, a national 501(c)(3) nonprofit supported by grants and a coalition of donors and readers.