Donald Trump Says Path to White House Goes Through Michigan

Michigan will be a key battleground state in the Nov. 8 presidential election as presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump campaigns heavily to end Democrats’ nearly three-decade-long grip on the state's 16 electoral votes, a top aide said.

Hillary Clinton, Trump’s likely Democratic opponent in the general election, was dealt a crushing loss by rival Bernie Sanders in Michigan’s March 8 primary after polling with a comfortable margin.

Clinton’s tepid appeal among Michigan’s blue-collar workers was partly a reflection of her support for the North American Free Trade Agreement, passed during her husband’s administration, and other trade deals that critics say cost U.S. workers' jobs in Rust Belt states.

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That could make Trump — who predicted early that he would win Michigan “because I protect the car industry” — the first GOP presidential nominee two win Michigan’s electoral votes since George H. Walker Bush in 1988.

Winning Michigan won’t be easy for Trump, but if pundits have learned anything in a bewildering election year like none other in history, it’s to not take anything for granted where the unconventional billionaire candidate is concerned.

Exit polls after the primary suggested Trump could turn the state red.

Voters in both parties — 57 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans polled — said they think trade deals take jobs away from American. Further, 69 percent of Democrats described themselves as “dissatisfied” or “angry” with the federal government, and 34 percent said they would not be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination.

Trump could siphon away some of Sanders’ populist Michigan voters, Republican strategist John Brabender told Fortune.

Clinton is sure to avenge her primary loss in Michigan to overcome a position of perceived weakness among Michigan Democrats, GOP strategist Greg McNeilly, who is among Trump’s critics, told The Detroit News.

“It’s going to be fear and loathing in Detroit and Flint and every other urban center Michigan has. Democrats are going to run a scare-out-the-voter turnout,” he said.

Still, McNeilly said he is “tepidly bullish” about Trump’s chances.

Michigan Democratic Party chairman Brandon Dillon said that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will need to establish a strong ground game in the state early on.

Trump has a clear path to his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland July 18-21 while Clinton and Sanders are still battling for delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention July 25-28 in Philadelphia.

“We believe Michigan is a state that whoever the Democratic nominee is, is going to have to be here early,” Dillon told The Detroit News. “They’re going to have to really make sure people understand the kind of things Donald Trump is saying — that he can make people’s lives better — is total and utter nonsense.”

GOP strategist John Weaver, who worked for Ohio Gov. John Kasich before he ended his campaign earlier this month, doesn’t think Trump can win Michigan.

“I think a combination of his rhetoric, his inability to bring people together, which is what you have to do in swing states like Michigan, ... are going to put Michigan out of reach for him,” Weaver told The Detroit News.

Trump’s path to the White House runs through the Rust Belt, and he’s also targeting Ohio, where 18 electoral votes are at stake; Virginia, 13 electoral votes; Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes; and Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes.

Image credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons