Donald Trump Closing In On Hillary Clinton in Michigan

Republican Donald Trump has moved within 3 percentage points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the latest Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV, and if the momentum continues, he could be the first Republican to carry Michigan in a presidential election since 1988.

Tump cut deeply into what appeared to be a safe, 11-percentage point lead for Clinton just a month ago. The former secretary of state still leads, 38 percent to Trump’s 35 percent, but her edge is within the 4 percent error margin of the poll, conducted by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV and their outstate partners.

Pollster Bernie Porn said the outcome may have been influenced by the timing of the poll of 400 likely voters, which began last Saturday after her “basketful of deplorables” comment at a private fundraiser and a day before she became ill at a 9/11 memorial ceremony and took a few days off from the campaign to recuperate from pneumonia.

“It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, (but) there has been a shift toward Trump,” Trump said. “Whether it’s going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined.”

Trump’s support improved among several groups, including white voters. Clinton was leading 38 percent to 36 percent in August, but the new poll shows Trump ahead 40 percent to 32 percent. Trump also leads among men, 38 percent to 33 percent, cutting into Clinton’s slight lead in that demographic group in August.

Clinton’s support has also eroded in other key groups. Among voters age 50 to 64, Clinton now trails Tump, 33 percent to 41 percent. In August, she had a 24-point lead among voters 18 to 34, but that has dropped to a 7-point lead as younger voters flock to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is now tied with Trump in that demographic at 24 percent.

Clinton still has a huge lead among black voters, 74 percent to 2 percent, but not as large is in August, when she had an 85 percent to 2 percent advantage. Trump’s direct outreach to black voters in Michigan hasn’t translated to increased support, though, as some previous Clinton supporters are migrating to Johnson’s and Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s campaigns.

Trump continues to poll ahead of Clinton, 40 percent to 36 percent, with voters who have a high school education or less, and has also overtaken Clinton in voters with some high school education and leads 36 percent to 32 percent.

Clinton continues to poll strongly among college-educated voters, with a 41 percent to 32 percent margin.
In the tri-county area of Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, Clinton leads Trump 47 percent to 32 percent, but that’s down from a 53 percent to 27 percent edge in August.

She also is losing support in union households, down from 49 percent in August to 41 percent in the recent poll. Trump’s union support increased to 37 percent, from 29 percent in August.

National polls released Thursday show the candidates in a dead heat with 42 percent each in the new CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday of likely voters, while Libertarian Gary Johnson has 8 percent support and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 4 percent.

In a head-to-head contest between the two major candidates, Clinton has a two-point lead at 41 percent to 39 percent of likely voters, which is within the margin of error, making it a virtual tie. When the poll is expanded to registered voters, Clinton's lead widens to five percentage points. Read more about that here.

Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr Commons