How An El Niño Winter Will Affect MN: NOAA Forecast

MINNESOTA — An El Niño climate pattern will mean Minnesotans will have a warmer-than-average winter, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday.

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists expect wetter-than-average conditions to prevail in Alaska, portions of the West, the Southern Plains, the Southeast, the Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic from December through February.

The Midwest is also expected to see warmer-than-average temperatures, with drier-than-average conditions.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Niño events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release.

A third of the country, including parts of the southern and central U.S., Hawaii and Puerto Rico, is experiencing drought conditions, according to Tuesday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Drought conditions remain “severe” and even “extreme” in parts of Minnesota.

Heavy precipitation later this month is likely to ease drought conditions in the central U.S., Brad Pugh, a drought expert with Climate Prediction Center. Said in the news release.

The heavy precipitation associated with a strong El Niño pattern is expected to provide drought relief to the southern U.S. during the next few months, Pugh said.