How La Niña's Exit Could Change Spring, Summer Temperatures In MN

Shifting La Niña conditions could impact temperatures in the coming months, potentially leading to a warmer spring and summer in Minnesota, according to the latest forecasts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center recently released updated seasonal temperature outlooks for the spring and summer months, all of which show equal chances of above- or below-average temperatures in many far northern states, including parts of Minnesota.

However, changing conditions could make warmer temperatures more likely, NOAA revealed in a forecast discussion.

Despite the presence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, NOAA predicts it will weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by April, likely lasting through May and June.

This transition, combined with long-term warming trends, contributes to the expectation of widespread warm conditions.

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions are likely to emerge and persist through at least the end of 2026. In the United States, El Niño is most associated with warmer, drier conditions in northern states as cool, wet patterns develop further south.

"El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position," NOAA explains. "With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding."

Spring, Summer Temperature & Rain Outlooks

The most recent temperature outlooks are part of NOAA’s long-range forecasting, which uses climate patterns and historical data to assess trends over several months.

Forecasters update the outlook regularly, meaning conditions and probabilities may shift as the seasons progress.

Here's a look at what temperatures could be like during the spring and summer months in Minnesota:

April-May-June

NOAA's newest outlook for the spring months predicts that most of the state has an equal chance of above- or below-average temperatures, though southwestern Minnesota could see slightly above average warmth.

Meanwhile, NOAA predicts the state also has an equal chance of above- or below-average precipitation

June-July-August

The possibility of warmer temperatures increases for a small portion of Minnesota heading into the summer months, according to NOAA. While most of the state still has an equal chance of above- or below-average temperatures, western Minnesota could see slightly above-average warmth.

Chances for precipitation during the summer months remain at an equal chance of above- or below-average rainfall.

August-September

Expect much of the same temperature-wise as summer draws to a close, according to predictions. It could be cooler in a small portion of southeastern Minnesota, where slightly below-average temperatures are possible.

Again, Minnesota is expected to have an equal chance of above- or below-average rainfall during the late summer months.

See all NOAA predictions.