5-0 Vikings' Playoff Odds: These Games Could Swing Their Season

EAGAN, MN — The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings are in strong position to return to the postseason, at least according to one closely watched projection.

The Athletic's NFL playoff simulator, updated Monday morning, gives the 5-0 Vikings an 83 percent chance to make the playoffs with 12 games left. The model, built by Austin Mock, plays out the rest of the season 100,000 times, weighing each team's record, roster moves, weather, and where each game is played, along with advanced efficiency stats.

The simulator puts Minnesota's odds of winning the NFC North at 42 percent and its odds of landing the NFC's No. 1 seed at 18 percent.

The Vikings win the division without the top seed in 24 percent of simulations, earn a wild-card berth in 42 percent and miss the playoffs 17 percent of the time.

The division race is crowded. If the season ended today, every NFC North team would be in the playoffs: the Vikings at No. 2 behind the 5-0 San Francisco 49ers, the Green Bay Packers (4-2) at No. 5, the Chicago Bears (4-2) at No. 6 and the Detroit Lions (3-2) at No. 7.

The simulator gives the Bears a 71 percent playoff chance, the Lions 67 percent and the Packers 52 percent.

The two biggest swings on Minnesota's schedule come at home late in the season. A Dec. 20 win over the Lions would push the Vikings' playoff odds to 91 percent, while a loss would drop them to 75 percent. The regular season finale against the Bears on Jan. 10 carries the same swing.

The road trips to Detroit on Nov. 1 and Green Bay on Nov. 15 are close behind. A win in Detroit would lift Minnesota to 93 percent, the highest single-game mark on its schedule, while a loss would cut its odds to 78 percent.

First up is a home game against the 2-4 Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 25.

A Vikings loss would drop Minnesota's odds to 75 percent. A win would bump them to 87 percent.

Fans can pick winners for every remaining game in the simulator to see how each result moves the Vikings' chances.