Hopkins Public Schools: Skirting the Forest For the Trees

Planners with Hopkins Public Schools are moving from a high-altitude view to a school-by-school analysis of enrollment. Officials say their enrollment projections, although nearly perfect the past couple years, aren’t sufficient when now as some schools are growing even as the district as a whole shrinks.

“We’re venturing into some new territory here with building by building projections,” said John Toop, the district’s director of business services.

The district is contracting with Excensus and Ncompass—companies that focus on demographics and school-focused geographical information systems. Their study will combine geographic data with a slew of other information—housing trends, transportation numbers, census data, birth rates—while also accounting for varying Department of Education classroom requirements. Architects will also examine school buildings to determine they maximum number of students they can hold.

District planners not only expect to see where changes are happening, but instantly be able to evaluate the effects of decreasing class size, moving to multi-age classrooms and other proposed changes.

“We’re giving them data tables that they have never had,” said Nik Lightfoot, the district’s director of administrative services. 

Accurately predicting enrollment trends has critical financial implications. A swing of just 1 percent can cost the district more than $400,000, Toop said.

But these new tools could also help in the classroom. Excensus’ long-term plan is to link this data to student performance. For instance, School Board Director Ellen Dustman speculated that the district could identify pockets of students who could use a tutor.

Toop plans to test the forecasters’ accuracy by using their models to “predict” last year’s totals, as well as estimate this fall’s numbers.

“I want to see them put some skin on the table,” he said. “That would be my plan for them.”