First Quarter Maple Grove Real Estate Breakdown - Cutting Through the Hype!

First Quarter Recap - Cutting through the hype    

If you've read the newspaper or looked through a magazine about the real estate market, or even listened to a real estate radio show lately, you'd believe the housing market is back to a pre-2006 sellers boom!  SELLERS MARKET? While there's no doubt we've seemed to hit a bottom, and prices and confidence are heading up, the data does seem to indicate there may not be the euphoria in the market some would like you to believe.  
 
From strictly an economics 101 standpoint, first quarter numbers from Maple Grove look ok,  just not dramatically positive like they did this year.                                   

Supply (new listings) up slightly, demand (sales) down almost 10%, is not the market conditions my economics instructor Mr. Green taught me was a sellers market.  Still, there's plenty of positive information in the number too:

With such a sharp contrast on what is going on in the market, it’s worth a little deeper look into why the information seems so contradicting.  As usually a look at price seems to tell a little more of the story. See < First Quarter comparison > for pie charts in how the price brackets of listings have changed since last year.   


Listings Above $400,000 - ( up 12%) With an increase from 98 new listing in 2012 to 110 this year there are more high end homes in Maple Grove for sale than we’ve seen in years.  With about 60% of new listings in this category being new construction, the time to sell is understandably longer and about 50% of these listings remain on the market today.  Average price per square foot however has increased in this group from $140.28/per sq. foot in 2012 to $142.88 today showing that even as supply increases, home owners and builders are optimistic prices are moving forward.  

Listings $220,000 - $400,000 - ( up 15%) Although supply is up from 121 homes last year in this price range to 139 homes this year, demand for these homes seems steady.  Of these homes listed first quarter 2013, only 25% or 34 of the homes remain available on the market as of this post.  Additionally the average price per square foot of homes listed in this group is up nearly 10% as sellers seem to have caught wind that the market has changed.  Even with the seeming demand, the 15% increase in supply may result in slowing the market a little as buyers in this category search for value.
 
Listings under $220,000 - (down 14%) This seems to be the category creating all the hype.  With a drop from 183 homes under $220,000 coming to the market first quarter 2012,to just 157 this year, Maple Grove is seeing a big drop in supply for these homes. But what about demand?  Of the 157 homes that have listed this quarter, only 31 (20%) remain available on the market as of this post.  Additionally, of the 55 homes in this category that were Single Family homes (not townhomes, condo’s or Twin Homes) only 3 homes remain available on the market as of the time of this post. If you’re a homeowner looking to sell your single family home in Maple Grove under $220,000, this is the market Mr. Green talked about!

Data seems to tell the truth in most cases - while we have lots to be excited about in the Maple Grove market, the buyers (and with them demand) still seem to have a little bit of say in how hot this market will really become. The under $220,000 price point seems to indicate a strong return from the "first time home homebuyer", as well as the investor types who seem to be everyplace in this market.  Both important to a return of a strong market.  To crack into the other two price ranges however, we'll need to see the return of the "contingent offer" home buyer who needs to sell their home to move up to their next home, and for bank appraisals to begin accepting the increases in values buyers seem willing to pay.  

We've come a long way Maple Grove, but we aren't all the way back yet!     

David J. Garves
www.maplegroverealestateinfo.com
dgarves@themlsonline.com

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