Confidence In Historic Super El Niño Grows: What To Know In MN

MINNEAPOLIS, MN — National Weather Service forecasters have increased confidence that an El Niño climate pattern taking shape in the Pacific will reach potentially historic strength, and that will significantly influence how much snow Minnesota gets this winter.

The weather service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said late last week that the El Niño has a 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the 2026-27 fall and winter. The agency said there's a 69 percent chance El Niño will be stronger than any event in the record dating to 1950.

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El Niño's effects are already being felt across the country, though they differ from region to region. Through early fall, the Southwest, Rockies and nearby Plains may skew wetter than normal, while the Pacific Northwest leans hotter and drier. Parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest also may be drier into late summer, while the South and Southeast have a more mixed rainfall signal. Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, El Niño typically increases wind shear that can suppress hurricanes, while the eastern and central Pacific often become more favorable for tropical storm development.

The beginning of winter — Dec. 1 for meteorological winter and Dec. 21, the date of the solstice, for astronomical winter — is still months away. NOAA hasn't made month-by-month predictions, but private weather companies and others have released 2026-27 winter forecasts.

For example, OpenSnow, a platform primarily for skiers, snowboarders and other winter enthusiasts, expects below-normal levels of snowfall.

An active southern storm track is a hallmark of strong El Niño winters. OpenSnow expects the heaviest snow to shift to parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies as El Niño strengthens. Northern-tier states could see significantly less snowfall than usual, and the northern two-thirds of the country and much of Canada could see a milder-than-normal winter.

"Historically, cold air originating in the Arctic has a hard time spilling southward into Southern Canada and the U.S. during strong El Niño years," OpenSnow said. "That's not to say it won't happen, it's just expected to happen less frequently than usual."

Another outlook from the Farmers' Almanac winter forecast calls for "cold" and "snow at times," plus "breezy."

The competing Old Farmer's Almanac hasn't fully released its 2026-27 winter forecast but in general is calling for a winter of sharp contrasts with the wetter, more active southern storm track tied to El Niño, periodic shots of snow and cold across the North, and a messy mix of snow, rain and ice in the Northeast.