Study Shows Demand for Senior Housing in Oakdale Climbing in 2015

With a senior housing provider first in line to buy land at the Oakdale Mall site and possibly start construction as soon as this fall, the market seems to be reflecting what a January study showed regarding the demand for senior housing in Oakdale—that the city can absorb about 700 more units.

Still, with at least five senior housing facilities in Oakdale already, it’s not surprising that residents have questioned whether the city really needs another one.

What the city’s study shows, and what local experts say, is that current demand depends a lot on the type of senior housing—independent living, assisted living or memory care.

While the city’s study, conducted by Bonestroo, showed that area demand already outweighs supply for assisted living and memory care, it also showed that the current supply of independent living senior housing was likely to meet demand until 2015.

In 2015, the study predicts a release of pent up demand for senior housing held back by the poor housing market.

Study author Jay Demma said younger seniors who might want to move into independent living senior housing are currently being held back by the housing market.

“When you’re still active, you’re sensitive to what you can sell your house for,” Demma said.

One misconception is that the increased demand for senior housing in the next few years is coming from the baby boomers, who began turning 65 this year, Demma said. The graying of Oakdale is starting with the generation about 10 years older than the baby boomers. There will be about 2,700 more Oakdale residents over 75 in 2015 than there were in 2009, the study shows.

Even when they turn 70, most baby boomers won’t be interested in senior housing unless they’ve got significant health problems, said Lisa Dunn, a Realtor who specializes in senior housing in the Twin Cities.

“The seniors who are using senior housing are the seniors who need services and can’t make it at home,” she said.

The average age of someone in senior housing is over 80, she said.

As far as the Oakdale market, Executive Director Connie Dow said she doesn’t think a new facility would pull their residents away, however the supply is greater than demand right now.

“It’s a lot of senior housing in a small area,” she said.

Currently, the city’s developer, Wellington Management, has a letter of intent from a senior housing provider to build at the Oakdale Mall site, and is working with the company on a purchase agreement, said Community Development Director Bob Streetar.

The facility can be a maximum of 120 units including memory care, assisted living and independent living, under the city’s concept plan for the site, he said, but the company would not necessarily have to provide all three types.

See Bonestroo's report in the photo secction of this article.