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Poll Shows Massive Minnesota Gender Gap In U.S. Senate Race

Men and women are breaking in opposite directions in the race between Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya, a new poll found.

Michele Tafoya, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, answers questions after voting on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)

ST. PAUL, MN — Minnesota men and women are sharply divided in the race for the state's open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll released Monday.

Women favor DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan over Republican Michele Tafoya 55 percent to 34 percent, a 21-point edge, the poll shows.

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Meanwhile, men back Tafoya 54 percent to 38 percent, a 16-point margin.

That adds up to a combined 37-point gender gap in a race where both major-party nominees are women.

Overall, Flanagan leads Tafoya 47 percent to 43 percent among 800 likely voters surveyed Oct. 5-7 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, with 9 percent undecided.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and is higher for subgroups such as men and women. The survey also found a deep geographic split, with Flanagan dominating Hennepin and Ramsey counties and Tafoya winning majorities in both northern and southern Minnesota.

Read more about the poll's results, including how independent voters are leaning and President Donald Trump's approval rating in Minnesota.

Early Voting Already Outpacing 2022

Plenty of Minnesotans have already made their choice. As of Oct. 8, local election officials had accepted 127,682 ballots in the first three weeks of absentee voting, including 47,968 cast in person and 79,714 returned by mail, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State's Office. That's up from 99,252 ballots cast during the same stretch of the 2022 general election.

Tuesday, Oct. 13, is the last day to register to vote in advance. Minnesotans who miss the deadline can still register when they vote early in person or at their polling place on Election Day.

How To Vote

Voters can request a mail ballot at mnvotes.gov/absentee.

Absentee ballots dropped off in person must reach local election offices by 5 p.m. on Election Day, while ballots returned by mail must arrive by 8 p.m. that night.

Voters can track their ballot at mnvotes.gov/trackmyballot.

Early in-person voting is available at local election offices during business hours through Nov. 2.

Starting Friday, Oct. 16, early voters will be able to feed their ballots directly into a tabulator. Early voting sites will also offer extended hours on the following days:

Saturday, Oct. 24: 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Tuesday, Oct. 27: open until 7 p.m.

Saturday, Oct. 31: 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Sunday, Nov. 1: 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Monday, Nov. 2: open until 5 p.m.

Polls are open until 8 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, and anyone in line by then can vote. Voters can find their polling place at mnvotes.gov/pollfinder or call the Secretary of State's Office at 1-877-600-8683 with questions.

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