How Minnesota Voters Shifted In 2026, By Age, Gender And Education

ST. PAUL, MN — Young Minnesotans swung sharply toward Democrats in this year's U.S. Senate race, while voters 65 and older moved in the opposite direction, according to new estimates from The New York Times.

The Times Voter Trends project estimates how different groups voted in every state, broken down by age, race, education and gender. Its Minnesota figures, last updated Nov. 7, compare the race between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya with the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections.

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Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, won the open seat with about 54% of the vote to roughly 44% for Tafoya.

Here's a look at how Minnesota voters shifted, according to the estimates.

Age

Voters ages 18 to 29 backed Flanagan 71% to 24%, a margin of 48 percentage points. That's a 33-point swing toward Democrats from 2024, when the group favored the Democratic presidential ticket by 14 points.

Minnesotans ages 30 to 44 also moved left, supporting Flanagan by 25 points, a 15-point shift.

The state's oldest voters went the other way. Voters 65 and older favored Tafoya 51% to 47%, after backing Democrats by 4 points in 2024 and 6 points in 2020. That amounts to an 8-point shift toward Republicans.

Voters ages 45 to 64 were unchanged from 2024, favoring the Republican by 5 points.

Seniors also made up an outsized share of the electorate. Voters 65 and older cast an estimated 30% of ballots, though they make up 24% of the state's voting-eligible population. Voters under 30 cast 15% of ballots, compared with 19% of eligible voters.

Gender

Men shifted 8 points toward Democrats. Tafoya carried men by just 1 point, 49% to 48%, after Republicans won them by 9 points in 2024.

Women backed Flanagan 59% to 39%, a 21-point margin and a 4-point shift toward Democrats.

Education

Minnesotans without a college degree swung 12 points toward Democrats, going from an 11-point Republican margin in 2024 to an even split this year.

College graduates moved slightly the other way. They still favored Flanagan by 23 points, down from 26 points in 2024, a 3-point shift toward Republicans.

The change was sharper among white college graduates, who backed Flanagan by 16 points after favoring Democrats by 25 points two years ago. White voters without a degree moved 6 points toward Democrats but still went for Tafoya, 54% to 43%.

Race

White voters, an estimated 85% of the electorate, split almost evenly, with 49% for Flanagan and 48% for Tafoya, essentially unchanged from 2024. Black voters supported Flanagan 90% to 8%. The Times did not have enough data to estimate how Hispanic, Asian or other voters in Minnesota cast their ballots.

How the estimates were made

According to the Times, the Minnesota estimates draw on interviews with 879 voters in the state through The Times/Siena Poll, results from 4,078 Minnesota precincts, voter files and validated turnout records. The figures are preliminary, and the Times plans to revise them in the coming weeks as more data arrives.

Check out more voting data at the New York Times.