Analysis: New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman's Bumbling Attack Makes Gov. Ayotte's Best Case

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

In the end, there are only two kinds of candidates: “Morning in America” and “Time for a change.” In every election, voters decide either to stay the course or throw the bums out.

Bum-throwing has been on a roll at the ballot box in the 21st century, particularly at the federal level. President Donald Trump harnessed voters’ demand for change to win the White House twice. Joe Biden used it against Trump in 2020. In fact, in eight of the past 10 election cycles, control of at least one of the House, Senate or White House has changed partisan hands.

It’s a very different story when it comes to electing New Hampshire governors.

Since 1980, just two incumbents — Democrat Hugh Gallen and Republican Craig Benson — have lost their reelection bids. Meanwhile, Democrat John Lynch and Republican Chris Sununu each served four terms.

After nearly a decade of Republicans controlling the Corner Office, Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley is desperate to deny Gov. Kelly Ayotte a second term. And that desperation is starting to show:

Granite State schools are ranked fifth best in the nation, and Buckley calls it an “embarrassing epic fail”? Really?

If Buckley is right, think about how humiliated Illinois at No. 24, California at No. 31, and Michigan at No. 33 must be. Will Buckley denounce their dismal performances when Govs. JB Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer come to New Hampshire to campaign for president next year?

Don’t hold your breath.

Buckley’s bumbling attempt to bash New Hampshire’s education ranking could hardly come at a worse time. In just the past week, New Hampshire has been named the state with America’s best health care system and ranked No. 1 for both economic opportunity and safety.

That’s on top of the many other No. 1 rankings New Hampshire has picked up since Ayotte took office, including best taxpayer return on investment and most economic freedom. Ayotte loves rolling out those accolades on the campaign stump. It’s a great way to make the case that voters should stay the course.

Why would Buckley bring this up?

Buckley’s explanation is that, since Ayotte has pledged not to “Mass Up” New Hampshire, it’s an epic fail that the Bay State finished ahead of the Granite State. But New Hampshire’s magic is delivering great schools and a great quality of life without the hassles and high taxes they’re stuck with across the state line.

The question Buckley can’t answer — and that Cinde Warmington has repeatedly declined to answer when contacted by NHJournal — is this: If New Hampshire is at or near the top of nearly every ranking, why is it time for a change?

When you’re No. 1, change almost certainly means moving down.

This problem isn’t unique to Warmington. Buckley’s candidates haven’t been able to answer the “Why make a change?” question since 2016, when Sununu was first elected governor.

Nobody is arguing that Ayotte is perfect or that there isn’t anything in New Hampshire that needs fixing. Property taxes spring to mind, which is why they’re on nearly every Democrat’s campaign signs this cycle.

But, like the “Why change?” question, Democrats have yet to address the “How do you pay for it?” angle. They’re pledging to send local governments more state dollars, but where are those hundreds of millions of tax dollars going to come from?

Nor have Democrats explained why, with state education funding rising every year — and setting another record this year — local school property taxes keep rising. If the state had rolled back funding, higher local taxes to fill the gap would make sense. But state funding is the highest ever, and so are local property taxes.

New Hampshire Democrats actually do have an answer to the “Why make a change?” question: “Because Trump.”

It’s not an answer that makes much logical sense. After all, Trump has very little to do with governing New Hampshire, and Ayotte is hardly a MAGA acolyte.

But elections aren’t won on logic. They’re won on emotion. And for many Granite Staters, few things rank higher than voting against Donald Trump.

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.