Politics & Government
Defying Political Gravity, Ayotte Widens Lead In UNH Survey As Trump Slides
In the survey, the governor leads former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington 49 percent to 39 percent, up from 44% to 39% in June.
Despite President Donald Trump’s tumbling poll numbers, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has expanded her lead in the latest UNH Survey Center numbers as her Democratic opponent fails to gain ground in this anti-GOP environment.
“Nearly all Republicans and a plurality of independents plan to vote for Ayotte while four in five Democrats plan to vote for Warmington,” said Dr. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Approval of Ayotte’s job performance has also increased since July.”
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In the UNH survey, Ayotte leads former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington 49 percent to 39 percent, up from 44 percent to 39 percent in June. In fact, Warmington has been stuck at 39 percent since at least April.
That’s a far larger advantage than Republican John E. Sununu’s two-point lead over U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas in the U.S. Senate race, according to numbers UNH released Wednesday.
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“While national politics continue to be messy, divided and uncertain, it’s clear New Hampshire knows Kelly, likes Kelly, and trusts Kelly. She continues to do things the New Hampshire way, and voters recognize it,” said GOP consultant and Nashua native Matthew Bartlett of Darby Field Advisors.
State Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley was unimpressed.
“UNH Poll in April: Ayotte 47% Warmington 39%. And after months and mega bucks spent in Ayotte’s smear campaign:
“UNH Poll in August: Ayotte 49% Warmington 39%” Buckley posted on X.
“With a 2.3% margin of error… it means that all that horse crap they have dumped on Cinde has not changed the state of the race. Cinde can win.”
Perhaps. But she has yet to lead in any public polling, and she is not gaining support even as the pro-Democratic environment improves.
Warmington formally entered the governor’s race in February. Since then, Trump’s net approval in the Granite State has fallen from minus 14 to minus 25, an 11-point drop. It is also Trump’s lowest UNH job approval rating since October 2017.
Trump’s dismal support is forcing Ayotte to defy political gravity in a midterm election, where polls and pundits say Republicans are likely to face a blue wave. In the latest Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll, Democrats have an 11-point lead on the generic ballot question, 52 percent to 41 percent. And yet, Ayotte also leads Warmington 49 percent to 38 percent in that poll.
Why isn’t Warmington gaining ground? Her problem is with Democrats.
In the UNH survey, 94 percent of voters who supported Trump in 2024 are voting for Ayotte. Among voters who supported Kamala Harris, 74 percent are backing Warmington.
Some of Warmington’s fellow Democrats are telling NHJournal on background that they have all but written off the race.
“I was not surprised by these polls,” one campaign veteran told NHJournal. “I assume the internals (internal campaign polls) don’t look good either.”
Ayotte’s campaign has kept up an aggressive barrage of attack ads, hitting Warmington over her work as a lobbyist on behalf of OxyContin and a notorious New Hampshire pill mill. Some Democrats believe Ayotte’s outspending Warmington on negative ads explains the state of the race.
However, Ayotte isn’t just beating Warmington; she is outperforming Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey.
In the UNH survey, Ayotte’s job approval is plus 7, at 49 percent to 42 percent, in New Hampshire, while Healey’s is just plus 2, at 50 percent to 48 percent. Healey, a liberal Democrat representing a deep-blue state, has a far larger partisan advantage than Ayotte, a Republican in a purple state.
For example, Harris beat Trump by 24.9 percentage points in Massachusetts, a massive Democratic win, while Trump lost New Hampshire by three points. And yet, Ayotte has a higher job approval rating as a Republican in an evenly divided state than Healey has as a Democrat in a state her party dominates.
Bartlett said voters like how Ayotte is governing.
“Kelly Ayotte continues to serve New Hampshire well in the great tradition of popular governors with broad support, by being accessible to Granite Staters in every corner of the state.”
This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.
