Politics & Government
For Democrats, Is The New Hampshire Senate Race A Battleground, Or An Insurance Policy?
The Senate Majority PAC commits $10.2M to the race, which is serious money. But it's the smallest buy on the Democratic group's Senate map.
When it comes to New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, national Democrats are talking like it’s a battleground. They’re spending like it’s an insurance policy.
On Monday, the Senate Majority PAC (SMP) released a statement touting a $10.2 million TV reservation for the margin-of-error contest between Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John Sununu.
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“Democrats are competing everywhere, including in the Granite State,” SMP spokesperson Christyna Thompson told NHJournal. “We’re seizing every legitimate pickup opportunity to flip the chamber, including defending blue seats like New Hampshire. The $10.2 million reservation is just proof that we’re taking this race seriously.”
While that’s serious money by any normal standard, it’s also the smallest buy on the Democratic group’s 2026 Senate map.
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In their statement, the SMP added that the TV buy “will be backed by a significant digital investment and will begin this fall.”
While it appears he still has to get past Scott Brown in the primary, Thompson made it clear Democrats expect Sununu to be the nominee. She said her party is ready.
“(Sununu) is a guy who’s got a track record of gutting Medicaid, and his work to privatize Social Security — he’s aligned with a lot more bad issues that are going to follow him into November.”
Asked about the $10.2 million TV reservation ante, Sununu’s campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf said it’s “no surprise that Chuck Schumer’s cash machine is coming in for Chris Pappas.
“New Hampshire is a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans, and Pappas is a partisan Democrat who voted with Nancy Pelosi 222 out of 223 times. John Sununu will be an independent voice who puts New Hampshire first.”
Sununu might be putting New Hampshire first, but the two national political parties aren’t. As President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn reminded Republicans on Tuesday, there are other states higher on the Senate priority map than New Hampshire.
Note, for example, that the SMP’s Granite State buy is significantly smaller than their spend on TV in North Carolina ($31.4 million), Maine ($33.4 million), and Ohio ($46.4 million).
In fact, New Hampshire is at the bottom of the targeted states list, behind the $20 million going to both Michigan and Georgia, the $13.4 million for Iowa, and even the $10.6 million in Alaska — a state with just 600,000 registered voters.
“So far, the Democrats are allocating 6 percent — 1 of every 17 dollars — of their funds to New Hampshire. That’s a sensible insurance policy,” said UNH political science professor Dante Scala.
Thompson acknowledged that “the path to a (Senate) majority runs through multiple states,” but she rejected the suggestion that New Hampshire isn’t a top-tier state for Democrats.
“Yes, we’ve got critical battlegrounds in North Carolina and in Maine, in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, but the truth is we’re using all of our resources to compete aggressively, and that’s on multiple fronts simultaneously. And New Hampshire fits squarely in that picture.”
GOP strategist Pat Griffin isn’t so sure.
“The Democrats are saying they are going to play everywhere. Well, reserved media can be canceled any time. They know that and so does everyone else,” Griffin told NHJournal.
“That money will eventually be spent only in states and races that are truly in play. That will be based on one thing: data. Money will go on the board and come off in real time.”
And so if Paxton appears as weak in Texas in September as he does today, both parties may shift hundreds of millions of dollars to the Lone Star state. If Democrats nominate a Hamas-sympathizer like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, millions may flow to GOP candidate Mike Rogers. And both North Carolina and Maine are going to be campaign money pits as well, political insiders say. All of which could draw cash away from the New Hampshire race on both sides of the aisle.
Greg Moore with Americans For Prosperity, on the other hand, doesn’t see that happening. On a recent episode of the NHJournal podcast, Moore acknowledged that the national campaign machines “are going to be picking their spots.”
But he believes New Hampshire will make the cut.
“I suspect that control of the U.S. Senate could come down to New Hampshire, and that would mean something like a quarter of a billion dollars or more.”
Veteran GOP strategist Dave Carney, also a guest on the podcast, said Moore was off the mark. That $250 billion number, Carney said, is too low.
“In the Hassan vs. Ayotte race (in 2016), $230 million was spent on both sides. I think with the Sununu vs. Pappas race, we’ll be close to $400 million before it’s all over.”
And if the SMP’s announcement of $10.2 million in early money was supposed to impress Granite Staters, it didn’t work on Carney.
“That doesn’t buy much Boston TV.”
This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.
