'Doom And Gloom': Warmington Campaign Struggles With Polls, Cash

By Leonard Robinson, NH Journal

Asked about the current state of Democrat Cinde Warmington’s campaign for governor, veteran GOP strategist Dave Carney summed it up in three words:

“Doom and gloom.”

And that was before a new Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll dropped Thursday showing Warmington trailing Gov. Kelly Ayotte by 11 points, 49 to 38 percent.

Carney and other campaign professionals are shaking their heads over the state of Warmington’s campaign, pointing to her weak fundraising, lack of television advertising, and limited support from prominent Democrats.

A sure sign of a struggling campaign: Warmington spent more than she took in during the most recent filing period. Her campaign raised just $253,255 while spending $288,366 — a $35,000 deficit.

Warmington reported $404,329 in cash on hand.

Compare that with Ayotte, who raised $2.2 million and spent $1.5 million during the same reporting period — much of it on media labeling Warmington an “opioid lobbyist.”

Ayotte heads into the fall with $3.3 million in cash on hand, and her campaign has already reserved more advertising time to keep the attacks coming.

Warmington is not currently advertising on television, a worrisome sign on its own, and her campaign does not appear to have the resources to go toe-to-toe with Ayotte on the airwaves.

Warmington declined to respond to NHJournal’s request for comment Thursday, continuing her unusual strategy of avoiding the media even as she struggles in the polls.

The Ayotte campaign, on the other hand, was more than happy to discuss Warmington’s money woes.

“New Hampshire Democrats have serious issues with her record of advocating for the opioid industry for years, and their donors know it, too,” Ayotte spokesman John Corbett told NHJournal.

“Investing in Cinde Warmington’s campaign now is like investing in the Titanic after it was miles out to sea.”

Warmington has unsuccessfully tried to shift attention away from her past work for the pharmaceutical industry.

In a video released earlier this month, the former Executive Council member said Purdue Pharma kept her in the dark about the dangers of OxyContin. The video inspired an unfortunate Union Leader headline, “Warmington: Purdue Pharma duped me into becoming opioid lawyer/lobbyist.”

Warmington has also been snubbed by the sort of high-profile Democrats who would be expected to back her campaigning, including the party’s 2024 nominee for governor, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. According to Warmington, Craig rejected a direct appeal for an endorsement.

And while Democratic New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill traveled to New Hampshire to campaign for U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander and congressional candidate Maura Sullivan this week, Warmington — who would become a fellow member of the Democratic Governors Association if elected — did not make the cut.

Warmington’s latest filing reports no financial support from the DGA.

Its Republican counterpart, the Republican Governors Association, has already contributed $2 million to Ayotte’s campaign.

“Warmington’s cash problem is just the tip of the iceberg for Team Opioid Lobbyist,” Corbett said.

“This is such an enormous recruiting failure for New Hampshire Democrats,” former NHGOP Chairman Fergus Cullen told NHJournal. “In a couple weeks, they will wish they nominated whoever finishes second in the NH-01 congressional primary for governor instead.”

A Democratic campaign consultant who spoke on background to discuss the situation bluntly agreed. The consultant blamed the party for backing a nominee with a known perception problem in a year when the political winds are at the party’s back.

“If Warmington’s struggling to raise money and the DGA continues to sit on the sidelines, that’s kind of the ballgame. She won’t be able to tell her story, and give the voters a reason to trust her over Gov. Ayotte,” the consultant said.

“And this all could have been avoided had the New Hampshire Democratic Party found a candidate that could raise the necessary funds and draw a sharp contrast to Gov. Ayotte without the Purdue Pharma baggage.”

Republican strategist Michael Dennehy said the lack of institutional support sends a clear message to potential donors.

“Warmington does not have the buy-in from Democrat leaders, both in Washington and New Hampshire,” Dennehy said. “It is essentially a vote of no confidence, and when there is no confidence, there is no money. It’s really that simple.”

The Warmington wipeout vibes have grown so strong that state Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley has been forced to remind Democratic activists and voters of the importance of supporting her in November.

“You cannot write off the governor’s race,” Buckley said earlier this year. “We cannot have our nominee getting 35, 36 whatever percent of the vote like in 2020 and expect to hold onto our majorities.”

Carney, meanwhile, offered Warmington his version of sympathy.

“Apparently she got duped into running for governor, too.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.