FITN 2028: Rubio Rises, AOC Surges, Harris Sinks

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

The latest survey results from the University of New Hampshire show Secretary of State Marco Rubio gaining ground on Vice President JD Vance among Granite State Republicans. They also find progressive U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumping to the front of the pack among Democrats, while big names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are losing steam.

In UNH’s February survey, Vance held a commanding 53%-7% lead over Rubio. But on Wednesday, that margin had closed to 36%-26%. Vance has fallen 17 points, while Rubio has surged 19 points.

“Vance’s support comes mainly from conservatives, with support from moderates and libertarians,” the survey noted.

The latest Saint Anselm College polling tells a similar story.

In March, Vance led Rubio 46%-27% among New Hampshire Republicans. By late June, the margin had narrowed to 37%-30%. That result is remarkably close to UNH’s new 36%-26% finding.

Rubio’s rise is a trend veteran GOP strategist Mike Murphy noted during a recent appearance at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. While many pundits have predicted that Vance will be the Republican nominee — perhaps without a serious primary opponent — Murphy offered a contrarian prediction:

“I think Vance is so screwed.”

Murphy predicted Trump will respond badly if Republicans lose the House or Senate and will look for someone else to blame.

“If he’s the shiny new Republican after Trump has a bad midterm, and people say, ‘Trump was great, but we didn’t do so well. We need this young guy,’ Trump hears that,” Murphy said.

That could create an opening for Rubio or another Republican contender, Murphy said.

“I think Vance is going to wind up with all Trump’s enemies and half his friends, and Trump’s going to be screwing with him every day,” Murphy said. “Meanwhile, Marco Rubio — he’s a real operator.”

For Granite State Democrats, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has consistently led in these very early polls, but he was edged out by AOC, 22%-21%, in the new UNH survey.

U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., is a distant third at 9%, followed by Newsom at 8%, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., at 6% and Harris at 5%.

What’s significant isn’t the current number, but the relative movement.

Since UNH’s February survey, Ocasio-Cortez has risen from 15% to 22%. Buttigieg is virtually unchanged, moving from 20% to 21%. Newsom has fallen from 15% to 8%, while Harris has dropped from 10% to 5%.

Saint Anselm’s polling shows the same general movement, with Buttigieg holding at 29% while Ocasio-Cortez rose from 10% to 17%. Newsom dropped from 15% to 11%, and Harris slid from 6% to 4%.

“The AOC surge indicates Democratic Socialists may be catching fire, even here in New Hampshire,” said Democratic attorney and activist Jay Surdukowski. “I still think Mayor Pete is likely the front-runner at this early point, given his popularity and very close second to Bernie in 2020, but the AOC surge is definitely notable.”

It’s Harris’ collapse that is catching the attention of some New Hampshire Democrats. The 2024 nominee has a double-digit lead over the rest of the field in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 28% support. In New Hampshire, she’s in the single digits — and falling. Some Democrats fear it will add to the anti-New Hampshire sentiment among DNC members who already believe the Granite State is an unwelcoming place for candidates of color.

Other Democrats, however, believe Harris would be a terrible pick for the party in 2028.

“She follows. She doesn’t take risks. She calculates. She doesn’t answer questions, she equivocates,” said Democrat Michael LaRosa, who served as former first lady Jill Biden’s press secretary. “She’s got to get over that if she wants to make a connection with people, but I don’t think she’s going to get a third at-bat.”

Murphy told the NHIOP audience he believes Buttigieg remains particularly formidable in New Hampshire.

“Buttigieg has a base here in New Hampshire, and he’ll be back,” Murphy said. “He’s got a new Van Dyke beard. He looks a little older.”

He acknowledged that “Mayor Pete” has a problem attracting Black voters, “but Buttigieg is the best communicator in the party,” Murphy added. “Don’t count that out in a crowded field. I think Pete’s real.”

Another dark-horse candidate to watch: former Chicago Mayor and Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel. He could appeal to New Hampshire’s independent streak, Murphy said.

“He’ll give it a race here, and he’s the quirky, tell-it-like-it-is, independent-appeal guy,” Murphy said.

The biggest vote for Republicans will come not from New Hampshire or Nevada, but from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Will President Donald Trump ultimately choose between his vice president and secretary of state — or continue encouraging a political version of “The Apprentice”?

At a May event, Trump asked the crowd to vote: “Who likes J.D. Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?”

“Sounds like a good ticket,” Trump said. “I do believe that’s a dream team, but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance.”

Vance later joked about Trump encouraging speculation over his successor.

“I just don’t think it sounds like the president of the United States to have a televised competition for who would succeed him as his apprentice,” Vance said.

One veteran of numerous New Hampshire Democratic presidential primaries told NHJournal on background that these early numbers are completely meaningless.

“The current front-runners are all there by name recognition, and many of them won’t be in the race by New Hampshire. The eventual nominee will be someone else. This race is like ’92 — remember Presidents Cuomo, Kerrey or Harkin?”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.