Pappas Losing To Sununu, Losing Ground To Manzur In Latest UNH Survey

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Shocking new numbers from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shook up Granite State politics Wednesday with the report that U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is losing a head-to-head matchup with Republican John E. Sununu, 45%-43%, and losing ground to progressive primary opponent Karishma Manzur.

According to UNH, Pappas’ lead over Manzur has fallen from a 61%-18% advantage in April to just 47%-34% today.

“New Hampshire Democrats, you don’t have to go for AIPAC-funded, corporate shill (Chris) Pappas, who is now losing to the Republican candidate,” progressive influencer Wajahat Ali posted on X after the numbers dropped.

The UNH Survey Center, which uses responses from a preselected panel rather than traditional random-selection polling, also reported Maura Sullivan has a substantial 24%-19% lead over establishment pick Stefany Shaheen. This is just the latest setback for Shaheen, who’s being outspent on TV by Sullivan and is slipping in the polls.

Progressive Carleigh Beriont is also showing strength, rising to 11% in the poll, followed by state Rep. Heath Howard at 10%. Howard ended his campaign Monday—the final day of the survey—and endorsed Beriont, potentially giving the Hampton Select Board chair an opportunity to consolidate progressive support during the race’s closing days.

Beriont also released a list of endorsements from progressive activists on Wednesday, including Emmett Soldati of Somersworth, former Democratic candidate for governor Jon Kiper, and the chairs or co-chairs of the Dover, Goffstown, Rochester, Rollinsford, and Somersworth Democratic committees.

The results largely track last week’s Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll, which gave Sullivan a statistically insignificant 26%-24% advantage over Shaheen. That survey put Beriont at 12%.

They also come at a fortunate time for Sununu, turning attention in the U.S. Senate contest to the horse-race numbers and away from his controversial decision not to participate in the traditional WMUR GOP primary debate.

The Republican National Committee was happy to comment on the UNH survey results.

“Pappas is a weak and pathetic candidate who has cowered before the radical left, refused to call out predators like Platner in his own party, voted to raise Granite Staters’ taxes, and is now embarrassing himself as he grasps at a promotion. Republicans stand ready to flip this seat in November,” said RNC spokesperson Kristen Cianci.

Also on the Republican side, veteran, nurse, and business owner Hollie Noveletsky has 28% support, while Portsmouth businessman Anthony DiLorenzo is at 25%. Manchester state Rep. Brian Cole trails at 7%, while 38% remain undecided.

Noveletsky’s showing is a sharp contrast with the Saint Anselm poll released last week, which gave DiLorenzo a 30%-17% lead. DiLorenzo has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and a significant fundraising advantage, but Noveletsky narrowly led him in the UNH survey.

The UNH findings were released just hours before the three candidates met at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics for the NHJournal NH-01 GOP primary debate.

The biggest movement in the poll, however, may be in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

Manzur, a medical scientist and first-time candidate, has gained support among younger and progressive voters, particularly those who identify as socialists. Pappas continues to perform best among voters older than 50, moderates, and liberals.

“She is definitely the progressive candidate, a candidate who frankly didn’t have the money and the organization early on, but has put together a grassroots campaign,” UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith told Boston’s 7NEWS. “And that old-fashioned knocking on doors because you don’t have enough money to run ads is working for her.”

“I’d say that race is up in the air,” Smith added.

Despite Sununu’s overwhelming primary lead, the poll found him statistically tied with Pappas in a potential November matchup.

The 2nd Congressional District primaries are also less competitive than the NH-01 contests. Republican Lily Tang Williams, the party’s 2024 nominee, has 58% support—56 points ahead of her nearest rival. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander holds a 40-point advantage over primary challenger Paige Beauchemin.

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.