Polls? What Polls? NH Journal Readers Predict GOP Wins In 2026

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

New Hampshire’s Republican base believes 2026 is going to be a good year for the GOP, predicting wins in Congress and in Concord, and they don’t care what the polls say.

That’s the finding of the latest NHJournal reader survey, in which nearly 500 readers — the vast majority self-identifying as Republicans — said they believe their party is likely to win federal races here in the Granite State, something that has happened only once since the 2010 Tea Party election cycle.

“There are a lot of Republicans in this state. We need NH Republican leadership in Washington!” one reader said.

While this is not a poll, it’s an informative glimpse into the thinking of political-engaged Granite Staters.

Among the findings:

• 67 percent believe Republicans will hold the U.S. House and Senate in Washington, D.C.
• 81 percent believe the GOP will keep the state House and Senate in Concord.
• And a whopping 98 percent of readers predicted Gov. Kelly Ayotte will beat Cinde Warmington in the governor’s race.

“I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Kelly Ayotte,” one reader said. “She’s done more than I expected and is not a rubber stamp for the (Republican) party.”

In fact, 80 percent of readers said they either strongly or somewhat approve of the job Ayotte is doing, higher than President Donald Trump’s 72 percent.

NHJournal readers also reject the narrative that Trump’s low approval ratings will translate into a poor performance for his party in New Hampshire. Only 20 percent said they believe Trump is hurting GOP candidates and will keep them from winning the state’s federal races. And just 8 percent agreed with the statement “Trump is a disaster. It’s 2006 all over again.”

Instead, 30 percent said Trump isn’t on the ballot and the state GOP is in great shape, and another 42 percent conceded Trump isn’t helping, but they still believe New Hampshire Republicans will win races for U.S. House or Senate.

Political operatives are not nearly as optimistic about Republican prospects as the survey respondents. One NHGOP operative informed of the reader survey results responded, “I’ll have what they’re having.”

Former GOP Speaker of the House Bill O’Brien was more tactful.

“Republicans must be clear-eyed: history tells us that midterm elections often punish the party in power, and we are seeking to defy that history,” O’Brien said. “Only by turning out every voter who loves our country and our state will we succeed in defeating the Democrats’ agenda of higher taxes and deeper division.”

Asked to name the issue they believe will have the most impact on how New Hampshire voters cast their ballots, more than half picked property taxes (53 percent). Nothing else was even close, with housing, the Iran War/foreign policy and Donald Trump bunched together at around 14 percent.

In the GOP primary elections three weeks from today, the readers’ views match public polling and their responses to a previous readers survey taken in June.

• Respondents prefer John E. Sununu over Scott Brown in the U.S. Senate primary 73 to 27 percent.
• Anthony DiLorenzo is the top pick (56 percent) in the NH-01 primary, with Hollie Noveletsky at 30 percent and Rep. Brian Cole at 14 percent.

The biggest surprise of the survey — which, once again, is not a poll — was the support for newcomer Victor Orlando in his NH-02 primary contest with Lily Tang Williams, where she had just a 53 to 47 percent edge.

Several readers picked Orlando as the candidate who surprised them the most in this cycle. “Victor Orlando’s messaging has been improving and I hope he runs again regardless of outcome this time,” one reader said.

Asked for their comments about the current state of New Hampshire politics, there are many admonitions for the state’s Republicans. “NH Republican voters are responsible for their own losses – perfection is the enemy of good!” one reader wrote.

“Local Democrats are by far outdoing Republicans on organizing, spending, and spreading propaganda,” another said.

There were some also less-than-kind comments for Granite State Democrats, particularly regarding the governor’s race.

“Despite the challenging political environment for Republicans, is Warmington really the best Ray could field for corner office?” one reader asked.

Another was even more blunt.

“Cinde Warmington may be running the worst statewide race since Jim Coburn in 2006, and that’s saying something considering Dan Feltes was on the ballot.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.