Vice President Vance Dominates Latest NH GOP 2028 FITN First-In-The-Nation Primary Poll

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

New Hampshire — it ain’t McCain Country anymore.

A new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll of GOP primary voters finds the Granite State’s GOP primary electorate closely mirrors national trends with J.D. Vance well in the lead, and the rest of the field — including Secretary of State Marco Rubio — far behind.

In fact, Rubio is in third place, behind Donald Trump Jr.

For decades, strategists, journalists, and campaigns have treated New Hampshire Republicans as a distinct political species — more moderate, more independent-minded, more likely to resist the national tide. Not according to these numbers.

The poll surveyed 350 registered Republican voters and was conducted from April 22 to May 13.

“In line with the national GOP electorate, New Hampshire Republicans put Vance at the top of their preference list for the 2028 presidential primary,” said Praecones Analytica pollster Dr. Jonathan Klingler. He noted that Rubio also shows “significant support” and that Granite State voters show “a significant willingness to support candidacies from a broad ideological spectrum, from Donald Trump Jr. and Nikki Haley.”

Of particular note is the poor showing of former Vice President Mike Pence (3.5 percent), a sign his old-school GOP style isn’t selling in the Granite State. And while Tucker Carlson is a star of social media, he failed to break the 1 percent mark (0.7 percent).

Veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill, who managed Marco Rubio’s 2016 Granite State presidential campaign, was blunt.

“This is J.D. Vance’s nomination to lose, and by a landslide,” Merrill said. “I think he is seen very much right now as an extension of the president, who remains very popular with the party,” Merrill added that if Vance opts out of the race, the field would be wide open. “If he doesn’t run, I think it’s not just going to be a Rubio nomination — I think it’s going to be a free-for-all.”

Former New Hampshire Senate President Jeb Bradley, who joined Merrill on the podcast, agreed. “It’s J.D. Vance’s nomination to lose, as long as he runs for it,” Bradley said, adding that Rubio’s positioning as a potential running mate rather than a rival could create a formidable ticket. “A lot of speculation about a Vance-Rubio ticket — which would be, in my view, a home run.”

Tucker Carlson’s numbers in the poll underscore a further nuance: even within a national-trending electorate, there are limits. Carlson, currently engaged in a public dispute with President Trump, has the lowest net-positive rating in the group.

Merrill said the dynamic illustrates how important Trump’s voice remains as a political force. “Tucker is taking fire right now, and it shows.”

Vance has the highest net-positive rating (78 percent approve, 22 percent disapprove), with Rubio and Trump Jr. tied for second (71/29 percent).

With the exception of Carlson, Republicans have a generally positive view of all the potential candidates, though again, Pence stands out by falling below 60 percent approval (55/45 percent).

Despite the controversy over the war with Iran and rising gas prices, Granite State Republicans still give President Donald Trump good reviews — 73 percent approve, 23 percent disapprove — similar to his standing in January (72/16 percent).

The poll also shows Scott Brown continues to struggle in the GOP U.S. Senate primary, trailing John E. Sununu by more than 40 points.

Both Bradley and Merrill praised Brown for running a vigorous campaign, but they agreed that, as Merrill put it, “I just don’t see any evidence that he’s catching on.”

“With the poll numbers, and with Trump’s endorsement, John E. is likely going to win,” said Bradley, “and he’s quite close to Democrat Chris Pappas in the polling.”

“We’ll see what happens, but I think Scott Brown’s got a really, really uphill climb.”

One reason for Sununu’s strength is his popularity among Vance supporters, Klingler said.

“Sununu enjoys a 4-1 advantage over Brown among those lining up behind Vance, while his lead is noticeably narrower among those unhappy with their options for 2028, suggesting that Brown’s support overlaps with those seeking new directions from the national GOP.”

The assumption of New Hampshire Republican exceptionalism has deep roots. For years, the state’s semi-open primary — which allows undeclared voters to participate — was cited as evidence that its GOP electorate was more centrist than the national party. John McCain won the state’s Republican primary twice, in 2000 and 2008, in part by running up large margins among independent voters. As recently as January 2024, NPR described New Hampshire as likely “the last stand” for Republicans who did not want Donald Trump as their nominee, calling it a state with “a more moderate Republican electorate.” Trump beat Haley by 11 points.

“It’s an antiquated notion — this idea that New Hampshire Republicans are different in degree and kind,” Merrill said. “I look at those numbers, and I see Trump — both Trump senior and Trump Jr. — and leaders who are part of the administration doing very well.”

At the same time, Merrill added, Granite State voters are capable of distinguishing between national and state-level figures. He pointed to the popularity of Gov. Kelly Ayotte and former Gov. Chris Sununu despite Democratic efforts to brand them as MAGA candidates.

“Remember how much Democrats tried to label Chris Sununu as ’a Trump guy — through and through?’ They put millions behind that, and they got smoked. They’ve tried to do the same thing with Governor Ayotte, and they can’t do it.”

Bradley says it’s about results.

“I think people on the Republican side respect Trump, even if they don’t always agree with everything he does or how he says things. That’s why Republicans like Ron DeSantis, too. Rubio’s done a great job as Secretary of State. That’s why all of these folks have high favorability, because results matter.

“That’s why people are fleeing blue states to go to red states, and we’re benefiting from that in New Hampshire.”

“It’s clear that New Hampshire Republicans know what they like and like what they know,” said Bedford resident Craig Stevens, a partner at DC-based DCI Group and veteran of the George W. Bush and Romney campaigns.

“And while there is still a lot of time to shake things up in the 2028 race, John E. Sununu looks to be a safe bet in the Senate primary and can focus his aim on Chris Pappas and flipping the seat in November.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.