Exclusive Poll: Partisan Divide In New Hampshire On ICE Facility, Deporting Illegals

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Republicans like it, Democrats detest it, and independents oppose it by a 2-to-1 margin.

That’s how Granite Staters feel about a proposed Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility coming to Merrimack, according to a new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll of 601 registered voters surveyed this week.

Asked if they support or oppose ICE operating a facility here in New Hampshire to hold illegal immigrants, just 41 percent of respondents supported it, while 59 percent opposed.

At Wednesday’s White House press briefing, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NHJournal that the facility was needed to address the flood of illegal immigrants during the Biden presidency. That argument appears to resonate with New Hampshire Republicans, 74 percent of whom support the ICE facility.

Undeclared voters, however, oppose it 64 to 36 percent, and an overwhelming 89 percent of Granite State Democrats are a “no” as well.

When asked why they are against the project, the top reason was opposition to ICE’s tactics for enforcing the law (51 percent), followed by opposition to President Donald Trump’s immigration policy (17 percent).

Another 16 percent are NIMBYS who don’t want the facility here in their home state.

While Democrats are on the majority’s side when it comes to the Merrimack facility, they’re out of step with the state’s voters on immigration enforcement overall.

Asked what should happen to people who come to the U.S. illegally, 53 percent say they should be deported, while 43 percent say they should be allowed to stay unless they’ve committed another, more serious, crime.

Deporting all illegal aliens is the position of a majority of undeclared voters (53 percent) and the vast majority (77 percent) of Republicans — but just one in four Democrats (27 percent) agrees.

Instead, 75 percent of Granite State Democrats say illegal aliens in the U.S. should be allowed to stay here.

New Hampshire voters also trust the GOP more to secure the nation’s borders (42 to 28 percent), with 30 percent saying they trust both parties equally.

The lesson from the poll, according to GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett, is that Granite State voters support immigration enforcement — as long as it’s done right.

“It’s clear that illegal immigration continues to be a legitimate issue for the voter, but ICE’s illegitimate tactics are clearly not acceptable to the public, and they are causing significant backlash.”

The Merrimack ICE facility has been a political headache for Gov. Kelly Ayotte as she prepares to run for a second term this November. The Republican governor has thus far declined to publicly support or oppose the facility, instead urging the Trump administration to work with the Merrimack community before moving ahead with the project.

That hasn’t stopped Democrats from claiming without evidence that Ayotte’s been secretly working with the Trump White House to get the facility open, with party chair Ray Buckley labeling her “Concentration Camp Kelly” on social media.

Massachusetts Democrat Gov. Maura Healey has also weighed in, denouncing the proposed facility and “demanding” that Ayotte join her. That move may have backfired for Democrats, however.

Massachusetts has been struggling with crime and soaring costs as a result of the surge of illegal aliens into its “sanctuary” state, a struggle that has made headlines north of the state line. Asked which state’s policy on immigration enforcement “is closest to the one you personally support,” respondents picked New Hampshire over Massachusetts 70-30 percent.

Yet again, New Hampshire Democrats are a distinct minority, preferring Massachusetts’ immigration policies by a nearly two-to-one margin (64-36 percent).

If the ICE issue is hurting Ayotte with voters, it’s not showing in the polls. In an NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll taken at the end of December, Ayotte had a job approval rating of 38 percent approve, 33 percent disapprove, with 29 percent having no opinion. This week, Ayotte’s at 38/32 percent, with 30 percent not expressing an opinion.

In both polls, Ayotte’s net approval (+6) is far higher than President Donald Trump’s (-20).

Still, Ayotte’s well below 50 percent approval, and a third of Granite State voters say they’re undecided about her performance. Why is that “no opinion” number so high?

“The relatively high proportion of undecided voters with respect to Gov. Ayotte’s job approval, compared to that of President Trump, likely reflects the increasingly nationalized political media environment,” says Dr. Jonathan Klingler of Praecones Analytica.

“Overall, higher proportions of ‘no opinion’ responses may also reflect an environment in which some voters are disillusioned with or questioning the political options available to them.”

Jessica Vaughan, Director of Policy Studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, says the poll is a reminder to policymakers that popular policies should be backed up with smart execution.

“The poll results indicate that while most Americans believe that immigration laws should be enforced through deportations if necessary, the majority do not support aggressive, rough enforcement that becomes a public spectacle,” Vaughan told NHJournal.

“The president and his team need to pay attention to this. Clearly, they need to allow ICE to tone it down and avoid clashes with protesters, even though this is not always easy to do. When they have to work in sanctuary jurisdictions, they should not attempt operations in public without local police backup to help maintain control.”

Video footage of protesters shouting profanity and spitting on immigration enforcement agents may spark anger among some voters, but Granite Staters are generally sympathetic to the people who are protesting ICE’s enforcement actions. In the poll, 63 percent described the protesters as “concerned citizens opposed to abusive immigration enforcement actions.”

Just 37 percent called them “angry activists trying to prevent law enforcement agents from doing their job.”

The full poll results can be found here.

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.