GOP's Murphy Gives Pappas Edge, But NH Senate Race Not ‘Locked Down'

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Veteran GOP strategist Mike Murphy predicts a blue wave in November, but he also sees a path for Republican John E. Sununu to beat Chris Pappas in the U.S. Senate race.

“The computer says it’s going to be a Democrat year here,” Murphy said Tuesday. “If I had to handicap it, I’d give the advantage to the Democrats in the Senate race.”

But, he added, “It’s New Hampshire. It’s never locked here.”

Murphy, who worked on the campaigns of John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, shared his view of the 2026 election cycle at a Politics and Eggs breakfast hosted by the New England Council at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

He predicted Sununu would defeat Scott Brown in the GOP primary, but to win the general election, Sununu will need to establish an identity independent of President Donald Trump.

“Sununu has to define the job of senator in a way that’s not about Trump. He’s got to be a New Hampshire independent who is not afraid to say no.”

Murphy said Sununu would also need to find an issue that forces Pappas onto the defensive. That could be difficult, he added, because Pappas has a straightforward argument against the party controlling Washington.

“Pappas already has an issue: ‘The economy sucks. Fire the people in charge. That’s (the Republicans).'”

“Or you hope and pray there’s some Platner-like fatal flaw with your opponent,” Murphy said. “Like we find out that Chris Pappas was running the Gambino crime family out of the basement of the Puritan restaurant.”

Polls consistently show Pappas with a lead, though it’s a narrow one. A University of New Hampshire survey gives Pappas a 47 to 44 percent edge, while a poll from the Republican firm Peak Insights found a 43 to 42 percent Pappas lead.

“It is clear that Granite Staters are over corrupt Chris Pappas, who is a rubber stamp for the Democrat establishment, and desperate for an independent fighter like John Sununu to deliver for them in Washington,” said NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell.

But that’s not as clear to Murphy, who sees the four-term NH-01 incumbent as a formidable candidate.

“The reason he’s strong is he’s got a base,” Murphy said. “He has already won and pacified a swing district — half the state.”

Murphy believes economic dissatisfaction will be the dominant force in the 2026 midterms, potentially giving Pappas and other Democrats a substantial advantage.

“Most elections are a pretty simple referendum on the economy,” Murphy said. “In economic stuff, perception is reality.”

“What we know counts is people’s perception of their purchasing power, and it’s bad.”

Murphy said Trump won his return to the White House largely because voters believed he could manage the economy better than the Biden administration.

“Donald Trump was elected on a deal with the electorate,” Murphy said. “‘Look, you know I’m kind of a jerk, orange hair, kind of tacky, maybe not the greatest person, but I can run the economy.’”

But Murphy said the political bargain falls apart if voters no longer believe Trump and Republicans are delivering economic results.

“All of a sudden, economic perception is not so good,” Murphy said. “His job approval on the economy is in the 30s now. That’s death for Republicans.”

“When Republicans are not perceived as able to run the economy, it’s like McDonald’s being unable to cook a hamburger — not good.”

Murphy predicted Democrats will win control of the U.S. House and said the Senate could also be in play.

“There’s a panic in the Senate politically that we (Republicans) could actually lose control,” Murphy said.

“I’m not sure I’d bet that the Democrats get the Senate, but I would bet they’re going to close the margin to two, and maybe one, and maybe win.”

New Hampshire will be one of the states determining whether Democrats succeed, Murphy said.

“The New Hampshire race,” he said, will be “as important as anywhere in the country.”

For Sununu, Murphy’s prescription is to make the election about New Hampshire rather than Trump or the national Republican Party.

“He’s got to be a New Hampshire independent,” Murphy said, “who is not afraid to say no.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.