New Hampshire's Sleeper Senate Race Is Starting To Wake Up

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Could New Hampshire cost Democrats control of the U.S. Senate?

That’s the question political operatives on both sides of the aisle are asking in the wake of a new poll showing likely Democratic nominee U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas trailing the all-but-certain Republican candidate, former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu.

Among those sounding the alarm is Pappas himself.

“This is a purple state. It’s a highly competitive race. It’s been that way for a year,” Pappas told CNN’s Manu Raju on Sunday.

And while the national press has focused on states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Texas, Pappas said his party “needs to focus on New Hampshire.”

“The math doesn’t really work for Democrats to pick up the four seats we need if we’re taking steps backward in the seats we already hold,” Pappas said. “We’ve got to hold this race in order for the rest of the math to work for Democrats to take back the Senate majority.”

The math making headlines comes from a University of New Hampshire survey that found Pappas trailing Sununu 45% to 43%, the first poll to show the Republican leading.

If Pappas loses, he would be the first New Hampshire Democrat to lose a U.S. Senate race since 2010.

National political observers are starting to notice.

“This year’s Senate race is a nail-biter, and Republicans view the race as one of their pickup opportunities,” liberal New Republic columnist Virginia Heffernan wrote this weekend.

“The New Hampshire wise guys who tell me constantly that Republicans don’t win federal elections in the Granite State should check the Sununu family won-lost record,” said Mark Halperin, a veteran political reporter and founder of the 2Way media platform.

“My favorite part of the race now is that Congressman Pappas feels compelled to insist the race will be close to make sure he raises money and gets help from the national party.”

National political analyst Louis Jacobson, chief author of “The Almanac of American Politics,” currently rates New Hampshire “Lean Democratic” rather than a toss-up. But he told the NHJournal podcast the state may receive more national attention after the Sept. 8 primaries.

“Perhaps people are just a little bit used to Democrats winning the Senate races in New Hampshire, whereas there’s a sort of novelty of the Democrats really competing in a serious way in Texas, Iowa and Alaska,” Jacobson said.

“There’s also just a general issue of the late primary. People nationally aren’t focusing on states until their primary is done. Now it’s going to happen shortly, and so it might reenter the conversation.”

Jacobson said the state has moved somewhat toward Democrats in recent federal elections but remains willing to elect the right kind of Republican.

“It is a state that has become a little bluer over the past couple of election cycles, but that still feels comfortable electing Republicans like the current governor and the past governor,” Jacobson said.

“I think Republicans can still pick their spots. I think it’s harder on the federal level because of the nationalization of elections, but it’s a small state, and so people feel a little bit more of a connection personally to their candidates.”

Pappas agrees, and he told CNN the Sununu name is another reason Democrats need to step up in New Hampshire.

“It’s one of the reasons why Republicans were very interested in recruiting any member of the Sununu family to run, because they’ve got universal name recognition and a brand that’s been established for almost 50 years in this state.”

Pappas argued that President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings and economic policies create an opportunity for Democrats, but the party can’t count on Trump hatred alone.

“We’ve got to do some work to connect with voters in this state about building an affordable economy, taking on a reckless president and restoring checks and balances,” Pappas said.

“At the end of the day, the voters are fair here. We have a path to win this race, but it’s going to be hard-fought.”

Halperin agrees.

“The state of the contest mirrors the national election: I can make the case for either side winning, and I defy anyone to express certainty about the outcome at this point. There are strong arguments on both sides.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.