Analysis: For Scott Brown, The Only Direction Is Down

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

The latest numbers from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, released Thursday, contained few surprises: Granite Staters do not like income taxes, Gov. Kelly Ayotte has a modest but steady lead in the governor’s race, and Scott Brown’s support is headed in the wrong direction in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.

What is surprising, however, is the pace of Brown’s decline.

In the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Brown’s standing versus GOP frontrunner John E. Sununu (Sununu 56 percent, Brown 19 percent) is roughly the same as that of longshot progressive Democrat Karishma Manzur, who is challenging Rep. Chris Pappas (Pappas 61 percent, Manzur 18 percent).

Since November, Brown’s support has fallen from 27 to 19 percent, while Sununu’s has risen from 40 to 56 percent. Brown is now trailing “Don’t Know/Undecided,” which stands at 21 percent.

Some Granite State political pros are skeptical of UNH Survey results, but other polls show the same trend. A March poll from the St. Anselm College Survey Center found Sununu leading Brown 49 to 28 percent.

“No path,” one New Hampshire GOP campaign veteran texted NHJournal on background when asked about the poll results.

After a rally with supporters in Bedford late last month, Brown reiterated that he had no plans to leave the race.

“Our message tonight was that this race is far from over, experience matters, and that I am the only one in this race willing to stand before people unscripted to answer any and all questions.”

Both Brown and Sununu trail Pappas in UNH’s head-to-head matchup.

Brown was not the only candidate struggling in the UNH survey.

Democrat Cinde Warmington is losing to incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte 47 to 39 percent. One reason is that Warmington is losing to Ayotte among independent voters by 25 percentage points. Another is that while Ayotte has the support of 97 percent of Republicans, just 78 percent of Democrats are behind Warmington.

Also unpopular: Democrat Andru Volinsky’s proposal for a 3 percent income tax to reduce property taxes, which was rejected 65 to 22 percent.

Warmington knows this is a problematic issue for her. During an interview Monday on WKBK radio with Kathy O’Donnell, she adamantly reiterated her opposition.

“I can’t even imagine putting a new burden on working people of our state. Uh, as I said from the beginning, no income tax, no sales tax — not on my watch.”

However, she has declined to say whether she supports the legislation Republicans are currently pushing to ban the state from ever passing an income tax.

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.