GOP Dreams of 2014 Dem Defeats Are Wishful Thinking

Joe Con looked excited and pleased."I can't wait for the 2014 elections. You Democrats are in so much trouble what with Benghazi, the IRS, and the AP phone records scandals. The GOP is going to clean your clocks."

"Curb your enthusiasm, Joe," I replied. "Let's step back and look at the big picture. First, Benghazi is what the press calls a 'nothingburger.'  The Urban Dictionary defines a nothingburger as 'something lame, dead-end, a dud, insignificant, especially something with high expectations that turns out to be average, pathetic or overhyped.'  Benghazi was a tragedy involving the deaths
of four dedicated Americans, but it wasn't a scandal."

" Fox News has been trying to hype Benghazi into a scandal for months in the hope that it could simultaneously discredit the Obama Administration and the presidential hopes of Hillary Clinton. It seems as if Fox News has been showing a video of that car burning at Benghazi longer than the Statue of Liberty has held the torch of freedom. Republicans would have better luck talking about the IRS and the AP phone records. Those are problems for the Administration, but I'll wait until all the facts are in before passing final judgment on them."

Joe didn't look in the least pleased with my answer. "Well, what about Obamacare? It's going into full effect in 2014. It's going to be a disaster for Democrats."

"Funny you should mention Obamacare. The New York Times (5/27/13) has something to say about that. 'The Affordable Care Act, a k a Obamacare, goes full into effect at the beginning of next year and predictions of disaster are being heard far and wide.  There will be an administrative 'train wreck' we're told; consumers will face a terrible shock. Republicans, one hears, are already counting on the law's troubles to give them a big electoral advantage.'

"The Business Insider (5/24/13) picked up the discussion. 'After weeks of talk about implementation 'train wreck' for Americans, supporters of the law finally got some good news Thursday. Insurance premiums in California's health care exchange will provide plans that range from a 2 percent increase to a 29 percent decrease in premiums, compared to current insurance rates.

"The Times commented further. 'So yes, it does look as if there's an Obamacare shock coming: the shock of learning that a public program designed to help a lot of people can, strange to say, end up helping a lot of people - especially when government officials actually try to make it work.' The Times added that last sentence because the Republican governors of Texas and Florida are more interested in sabotaging Obamacare than in helping their states' neediest citizens by properly implementing the Affordable Care Act."

Now Joe was definitely sulking. "Even if Obamacare isn't a failure, the rest of the economy is a mess."

"Well, not according to columnist Charles M. Blow of the New York Times (5/25/13), who writes, 'The unemployment rate has dropped to 7.5 percent. The Dow is above 15,000 and continuing to set records. The housing sector is rebounding . . .Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit this year - at 4.0 percent of gross domestic product (G.D.P.) will be less than half as large as the shortfall in 2009 (when Obama first took office), which was 10.1 percent of G.D.P.'"

"Well," said Joe, "we conservatives still have our ace in the hole - the Tea Party  carried us to victory in 2010, and will again in 2014."

"You may be interested to know, Joe," I replied, "that the Tea Party is in decline. According to Blow's column. 'An April 2012 Associated Press report included a finding from Theda Skocpol, a Harvard professor, that the number of Tea Party groups had fallen from about 1,000 to about 600. And a Washington Post/ABC News poll released this week found that the portion of people saying they strongly support the Tea Party, just 10 percent, was the lowest they had recorded since 2011.'"

"Joe, what I am saying is that politics is notoriously unpredictable. Don't start counting your chickens, or in this case new Republican congressional seats in 2014, before they hatch, or you may end up running around in circles looking like a dumb cluck.