Santorum's Surge Is Real, But Not Enough to Win NH

With only a few days to go until the Republican Presidential Primary Election, GOP voters and pundits alike are looking to a new dark horse candidate's strong showing in Iowa, and a possible disruptive effect on the yearlong front-runner. They should prepare for disappointment.

A few months back, I wrote for the Live Free or Die Alliance's Virtual Town Hall that ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a lock in the first-in-the-nation primary, a lead-pipe cinch to be king of the New Hampshire Republican presidential candidate-selection hill.

Nothing has swayed me, not even a triumphant second-place finish by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who was edged by Romney by a mere eight caucus-goers on Tuesday.

That kind of performance, rising Lazarus-like from the heap of dead presidential campaigns, augurs well for Santorum, but signifies nothing for Romney in the Granite State. Instead, the losers in Santorum's near win in Iowa are Newt Gingrich and, to a lesser extent, Ron Paul.

Paul, the libertarian 12-time Texas Congressman, will still pull his coterie of true believers, particularly those under 50, and that should be good for about 20 percent of next Tuesday's voters. Gingrich, however, is likely to lose many of his "anti-Romney" voters to Santorum, who has shown the ability (very recently) to win and raise money, and has the bona fides to appeal to New Hampshire's social and religious conservatives.

That last point will be interesting to watch as Santorum, who proudly trumpets his Roman Catholic faith and values, takes on the Mormon Romney once the race moves from New Hampshire to the Southern states, where the Church of Latter-Day Saints is viewed with suspicion.

Of course, it doesn't take this Jack Chick tract to illustrate that the heavily evangelical Protestant South (or much of America) hasn't historically embraced Catholicism, either, so Santorum's post-Iowa surge may not be enough sustain him after South Carolina. His best hope is that the Bible Belt will take Santorum at his word that he stands against same-sex marriage and abortion, and that he's more-or-less one of them. That shouldn't be that hard a sell. After all, with apologies to Ms. Barbara Mandrell, Catholics comprised the Religious Right when country wasn't cool.

Yet none of that means beano in New Hampshire. The evangelical vote could bring, maybe, 19 of every hundred ballot-casters Santorum's way, and his more-authentic-than-Romney demeanor should be good for five or six more.

But, as political consultant Meredith Warren pointed out to New England Cable News on Friday, Romney still holds the cards.

John F.J. Sullivan is editor-in-chief of the nonprofit, nonpartisan Live Free or Die Alliance (http://nhlfda.org).