Study: NH Jobs are Going to Immigrants, not Citizens

By Steven Camarota

The Gang of Eight immigration bill (S.744) passed last June would have roughly doubled the number of new foreign workers allowed into the country, as well as legalized illegal immigrants. Both of New Hampshire’s senators voted for it. This increase in immigration would have had a significant impact on American workers. Since a similar bill may come before Congress in the future, politicians must consider the impact increased immigration would have on American workers.

In New Hampshire and the nation, job growth has been weak. Thus even putting aside the amnesty for illegal immigrants, it is still very hard to understand why the state’s senators supported dramatically increasing the number of foreign workers allowed into the country. As our new report explains, as the number of immigrant workers in the state has increased, the share of working-age (16 to 65) natives in New Hampshire holding a job has declined and the number not working has grown.

An analysis of government data by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that since 2000, 71 percent of the net increase in jobs in New Hampshire among the working age has gone to immigrants (legal and illegal) — even though the native-born accounted for 65 percent of population growth. The total number of working-age immigrants (legal and illegal) holding a job in New Hampshire increased by 21,000 from the first half of 2000 to the first half of 2014, while the number of working-age natives with a job increased by just 8,700 over the same period.

Thought it is difficult to measure, our best estimate is that perhaps one-third (7,000) of the increase in immigrant employment since 2000 in the state was among illegal immigrants.

In the first half of this year, 75 percent of working-age natives in New Hampshire held a job. As recently as 2000, 79 percent of working-age natives were working. This is a significant decline. Looked at another way, the numbers are even more troubling. Because the native working-age population in New Hampshire grew significantly, but the share working actually fell, there were nearly 41,000 more working-age natives not working in the first half of 2014 than in 2000 — a 25 percent increase.

Those who argue that we need more immigration because there aren’t enough workers haven’t done their research. The supply of potential workers in New Hampshire is very large: In the first half of 2014, 205,000 working-age natives of all education levels were not working (unemployed or entirely out of the labor market) as were 16,000 working-age immigrants.

Of working-age natives not working, the overwhelming majority (170,000) do not have a college education. Prior research indicates that the vast majority of illegal immigrants also do not have a college education, and therefore mostly compete with less-educated natives for jobs.

After our report was mentioned in last night’s senatorial debate, a group that alleges to care about American workers — the AFL-CIO of New Hampshire — sent out a nonsensical press release claiming that our figures are “factually incorrect” and “outdated,” with no evidence to back up their claims.

The research, conducted by myself and a colleague, Karen Ziegler, is based entirely on government data used to measure employment — the public-use files of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is collected by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The New Hampshire AFL-CIO president Mark MacKenzie incorrectly stated that the analysis is “outdated” and is “from 2010.” This is simply incorrect. The data come from the first half of 2014 (January to June), not 2010. Mr. Mackenzie clearly never even looked at the study before commenting.

MacKenzie’s other contention that research performed by the “Pew Research Center do not bear out the report’s conclusions” is also incorrect. I personally know many of the researchers at Pew, and I am unaware of anything they have published contradicting our analysis. MacKenzie’s comments reflect the AFL-CIO’ unwillingness to consider immigration’s impact on American workers. In fact, the union actually supported the Senate’s Gang of Eight bill last year that would have doubled the number of foreign workers allowed into the country at a time when so many Americans are struggling to find work.

The question for politicians is whether they think there should be more or less foreign competition for jobs, given the decline in employment nationally and in New Hampshire. Politicians and groups like the AFL-CIO must also decide whether they support American workers or corporate demands for more cheap labor from abroad.

our latest report explains
http://cis.org/who-got-the-jobs-in-new-hampshire

Steven Camarota is the director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies