Ayotte Bucks Blue Tide, Shaheen Stumbles For Open 1st Congressional District Seat: St. A's Poll

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

The latest Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll adds to the evidence that the November midterms are likely to be rough for New Hampshire Republicans. Voters don’t like the brand, and they aren’t backing the candidates.

Unless they’re named Ayotte.

First-term Gov. Kelly Ayotte continues to lead Democrat Cinde Warmington, and the margin is growing—even as the overall political climate turns against the GOP.

Ayotte leads Warmington 49 percent to 38 percent, up from a 45 percent to 37 percent advantage in June. Just as significant, Ayotte’s favorable/unfavorable rating has improved to 51 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable, while Warmington is underwater, 25-37 percent.

And while 89 percent of Granite State Republicans have a positive view of Ayotte, fewer than half of Democrats (47 percent) feel the same about Warmington.

Those are surprising numbers, given that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater, 37 percent to 62 percent, and Democrats are dominating the generic ballot question over the GOP, 52 percent to 41 percent.

Also surprising: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter Stefany, long viewed as the inevitable Democratic nominee in the NH-01 primary, is trailing Maura Sullivan, 26 percent to 24 percent. Shaheen is being outspent by Sullivan, and she’s the first candidate in the race to go negative, a sign the polls aren’t breaking in the legacy candidate’s favor.

“These numbers are surprising,” said Wayne Lesperance, president of New England College and a longtime New Hampshire political analyst. “And it explains the more aggressive approach Shaheen’s team is taking. I’d also urge caution—more respondents still identify as unsure (27 percent) than are aligned with either Shaheen or Sullivan.”

The only other candidate in the NH-01 primary in double digits is Harvard lecturer and Hampton Select Board Chair Carleigh Beriont. Christian Urrutia, who has been running TV ads for weeks, remains at 3 percent.

On the GOP side, Anthony DiLorenzo has surged to a nearly two-to-one lead over Hollie Noveletsky, 30 percent to 17 percent. In June, Noveletsky held a slim 16 percent to 13 percent edge. Manchester state Rep. Brian Cole is at 8 percent.

In the two U.S. Senate primaries, the front-runners continue to hold double-digit leads over their opponents. Democrat Chris Pappas is leading Dr. Karishma Manzur, 59 percent to 28 percent, and Republican John E. Sununu has a 54 percent to 24 percent lead over Scott Brown.

And in the other federal race, Maggie Goodlander leads Paige Beauchemin, 66 percent to 17 percent, in the NH-02 Democratic primary, while Lily Tang Williams leads Victor Orlando, 53 percent to 7 percent, among GOP voters.

Republicans are hoping this will be the year they break the Democratic Party’s dominance at the federal level, perhaps with some help from Ayotte. That is not showing up in the polls, however. Pappas has a seven-point lead over Sununu in the head-to-head poll, and Goodlander leads Williams by 15 points in the NH-02 general election.

“Republicans are still on the back foot as the midterm elections draw near,” said New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque. “An unpopular president and an unpopular war are causing problems for candidates even as negative attacks on Democrats are finding their mark.”

The Saint Anselm College results align with other available data on the state of New Hampshire politics. The UNH Survey Center, which uses a panel system rather than random polling, also puts Trump’s approval underwater by a wide margin, 37 percent to 62 percent.

And the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the U.S. Senate race “Lean Democratic,” the NH-01 race “Likely Democratic” and the NH-02 contest “Solid Democratic.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.