Halperin Sees Newsom As Democrat Frontrunner For 2028; NH Likely FITN

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Could 2028 see the return of the “Seven Dwarfs”?

On the latest NHJournal podcast, veteran political reporter Mark Halperin says the current Democratic presidential primary field is so weak that California Gov. Gavin Newsom belongs at the top of the list — even if Halperin still isn’t convinced Newsom will actually run.

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“Right now, he’s really one of the only aircraft carriers in the race,” Halperin said. “He’s one of the only folks who can raise the money, perform on media, do well in the early states, handle himself with voters. So it’s a very weak field. But he’s got more assets than anybody else from my reporting.”

It’s a throwback to 1988, when a large but unimpressive field of Democrats (that included U.S. Sen. Joe Biden) earned the nickname “The Seven Dwarfs.” The eventual nominee was a liberal governor from a deep-blue coastal state: Mike Dukakis of Massachusetts.

Halperin, the veteran presidential campaign reporter and host of 2WAY’s “The Morning Meeting,” has a similar view of the 2028 Democratic field.

His current “8 for 2028” list: Newsom at No. 1, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia.

Halperin stressed his rankings are about who is most likely to win the nomination, not who would be strongest in a general election.

That’s why Harris—the first Democrat to lose the popular vote to a non-incumbent Republican since Dukakis, and who was also swept in the swing states—is so high on the list.

Her strengths, he said, remain significant: support among women and Black voters, fundraising power, a large email list, and the ability to generate enthusiasm among a meaningful share of Democratic primary voters.

“You don’t need to win 50 percent,” Halperin said. “You just need to win more than anybody else in terms of votes and delegates.”

At the same time, Halperin acknowledged a lack of enthusiasm in political circles about another Harris run.

“I have sources who think she should be number one, and I have sources who don’t think she should be on the list,” Halperin said.

Asked whether he would advise Harris to run again if her goal were victory, Halperin was blunt.

“Not if her goal is to win,” he said. “I don’t think she can be the nominee, and I don’t think she can win a general election.”

Halperin discussed the current mood among Democratic insiders regarding the need to nominate “a White, Christian male.” And yet his list includes several Jewish Democrats—Shapiro, Sanders, Emanuel, and Ossoff—despite the heated anti-Israel politics among Democrat primary voters and a rising tide of open antisemitism.

Halperin rejects the widely held belief that Democrats won’t nominate a Jew in 2028.

“The candidate matters most,” he said. “The right Jew can explain to the party what their position on Israel is, and I believe that would not be dispositive.”

Halperin pointed to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign as evidence that a Democrat can win the nomination while holding positions at odds with the party base. Clinton ran as a pro-death penalty, pro-welfare reform, pro-free trade Democrat at a time when those positions angered many liberals, Halperin noted.

As for Shapiro, Halperin said his Jewish faith is not his biggest obstacle. His problem, Halperin argued, is how he handles political adversity.

“He has not handled adversity well when there have been political controversies,” Halperin said. “I’m just amazed a guy that smart and that agile does not have a strong team around him.”

Halperin said the Pennsylvania governor has failed at one of the most important tasks in presidential politics: controlling his public image.

“You must be the guardian of your public image,” Halperin said. “You need the media and the public and your rivals and your opponents to think of you the way you’d like to be thought of. And when adversity comes up, he simply doesn’t do it.”

That weakness, Halperin added, could be fatal in a presidential campaign.

“It is arguably the single biggest Achilles heel for a presidential candidate,” he said. “If you have any success, there will be controversies that if you handle them the way he’s handled them—not the way Bill Clinton would handle them, or Barack Obama or Donald Trump—you’re asking to be knocked out of the race.”

As for New Hampshire, Halperin said if the primary were held today with all eight Democrats on his list in the race, Sanders would win.

He also believes the Granite State has a good shot at holding onto its First in the Nation primary. Ironically, he sees the press’s dwindling interest in the contest as a contributing factor.

He said there is “shockingly little interest” in the 2028 calendar and its implications.

“So many of the reporters and editors these days don’t know what the Wayfarer bar is, couldn’t drive from Keene to Manchester if their life depended on it, have never been to a Pumpkin Festival,” Halperin said. “The resonance of what the primary means is lost on a lot of the people who control the discussion about the calendar.”

But that lack of attention may work in New Hampshire’s favor.

“I don’t think anybody’s going to object to your nonurban, lily-White state going first,” Halperin said. “And I wouldn’t be surprised if you were first.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.