An Analysis of Windham Schools - Part 2

Windham School District Enrollment Projections

Is it a Bubble?

The Windham Taxpayers Coalition believes our tax dollars should be spent wisely, without compromising the education of our children. This is the second in a series of articles that will analyze the needs of our school district, using the facts and figures that have been previously presented to the public by the Windham School Board. 

In Part 1 of this series, we learned that there is a considerable amount of confusion regarding the School Board's reported educational capacities for our schools – especially when comparing the School Board’s figures from 2009 with their figures from 2011.  It also shows the School Board stopped following State Standards for measuring educational capacities in 2011.

This article will focus on projected student enrollments over the next ten years.  In June, 2011, the School Board made the following statements in the Final_Master_Plan_Presentation_June_20_2011;

“Given student population trends, there is no evidence that the capacity issue will be alleviated over the next 10-20 years.  There is no 'Bubble' that we need to wait out.” (click here to view pg 11)

“Estimates all seem to triangulate in on a total student population that will continue to grow at a slower rate and peak in the 2019-2020 school year at approximately 3,000 – 3,100 students in K-12.”  (click here to view pg 16)

These enrollment projections of over 3,000 students are reflected in the School Board's projections on page 33 of the 6-19-12 PUBLIC PACKET.  When you click on the link below, notice that the School Board began to selectively lock in their birth rates and enrollments starting in 2015.  Why?  This fact should not be glossed over, as the School Board has used these projections as a primary factor to justify their decision to build a new school.  The locked in enrollment projections over the next ten years for 1st grade and up, range between 230 and 257 students.

Click here to view the School Board’s projecitons

Equally important is the fact that the School Board's figures are NOT supported by two professional organizations that provide enrollment projections for NH public schools, the NHSBA and NESDEC.  In the NHSBA chart, it shows all grades below the red line will NOT rise to over 200 students.  This is a significant difference from the School Board's projections that exceed 250 in some grades.

Click here to view the NHSBA enrollment projections

The NESDEC chart shows similar trends to the NHSBA.

Click here to view the NESDEC enrollment projections

Together, the NHSBA and NESDEC charts both estimate that our total student enrollments are virtually at a peak – and that contrary to the School Board’s statement above, there IS evidence that the capacity issue will be alleviated over the next 10 years.  Based on the NHSBA and NESDEC projections -- it appears that we are working our way through an enrollment bubble.

The following link shows a graph that compares each of the enrollment projections mentioned above.

Click here to view the graph

The graph above shows two obvious anomalies related to the School Board's enrollment projections; (1) notice the 2012 projections of 2,843 students are higher than actual enrollment of 2,771, and (2) the School Board's projections move in the opposite direction of those by the two professional organizations, NHSBA and NESDEC.  This is a potentially significant error, and it behooves us to question not only how the School Board arrived at these figures -- but why their projections rise... while the other projections diminish.

Especially since two of the NHSBA’s projection models indicate that THIS YEAR, we are at the highest point of enrollment for the next ten years and that our enrollment will drop to 2,355 students (5 yr. weighted) or 2,450 students (3 yr. weighted) by 2022.   The third projection model predicts a peak of 2,804 students in 2016 (only 33 students more than we have today), and then dropping to 2,587 in 2022.  Each of these projections are substantially below our current enrollment of 2,771 students – and well below the School Board’s estimate of over 3,000 students.  Using all three NHSBA and the NESDEC models, all indicate that we are virtually at our peak, and soon to decline.

This begs us to consider the following questions…  How many students are we currently over capacity? Which grades are over capacity -- and by how many students each?  What are the projected trends for the next ten years?  Are we dealing with a short term bubble or a long term capacity issue?

Before we approve more than $31M to build a new school -- shouldn't we give serious consideration to the fact that two professional educational organizations have suggested that Windham student enrollments will begin to diminish in the near future – and possibly as soon as this September? 

To learn more about the Windham Taxpayers Coalition, please visit www.WindhamTaxpayers.org.

Windham Taxpayers Coalition