June 1 marked the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal season this year.
NOAA's forecast for the season, which runs through November 30, calls for a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA said it has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
El Niño conditions are expected to keep things below normal, but forecasters warned that things could still change.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Details on where and when storms may fall are determined by short-term and variable weather patterns, NOAA said.
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.
More information on the seasonal outlook is expected in early August ahead of peak season, which runs mid-September through October.
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