Brewing Tropical Storm To Bring High Winds, Drenching Rain To NJ: See Timeline

NEW JERSEY— Tropical storm warnings have been issued from North Carolina to Delaware as a system develops over the Atlantic Ocean, with soaking rain and strong winds expected in parts of New Jersey.

Forecasters have issued storm watches and high wind watches along the Atlantic coast of New Jersey from midnight Friday night through Saturday, as threat for strong to damaging winds has increased.

The system is likely to make landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning; AccuWeather meteorologists believe it could form into a tropical or subtropical storm, which would warrant a name, around that time.

The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will have downgraded to a tropical depression by the time it reaches New Jersey, bringing heavy rainfall and potentially-damaging winds. The center called the storm Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 as of Thursday at 11 a.m.

Forecasters said coastal flooding will be a major concern, with rainfall between 2 to 4 inches possible. And, high wind gusts will again make swimming conditions dangerous along Jersey Shore beaches, said the National Weather Service:

"Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend," the NHC said. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

A high wind watch and a high rip current risk are in effect in coastal New Jersey counties. Forecasters are now predicting winds between 25 and 40 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 60 miles per hour, from late Friday night into Saturday evening in Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic and Coastal Ocean counties.

Dangerous rip currents are expected on Thursday and through at least Friday evening in eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic and Coastal Ocean counties.

“Suffice it to say, the weekend in general, and Saturday in particular, is not looking very nice," National Weather Service forecasters said.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry and seasonable, per the NWS. The exact timing of the system isn’t certain, but an initial batch of moderate-to-heavy rain will advance northward across the Delaware Peninsula on Friday night, and could be into South Jersey by Saturday morning.

“These kinds of storm systems can often be slow-moving and notoriously difficult to forecast,” the NWS said Thursday.

“As far as sensible weather goes, look for sunshine to fade quickly across most of our region through midday Friday as high clouds spread northward.”

The local National Weather Service office's predicted rainfall amounts between Friday and Saturday are slightly lower than the National Hurricane Center's predictions, but may change depending on the storm's development.

As of Thursday at 1:30 p.m., NWS forecasters predict 2 to 3 inches of rain in Vineland, Atlantic City, Cape May, and Toms River, with up to 2 inches in Long Branch and Trenton, and parts of Central and South Jersey. Those north of Trenton and close to the New York City metro may see between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain. Far northwest Jersey may see under 1 inch of rain.

Here is a look at the latest forecast around New Jersey from the National Weather Service:

North Jersey

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind around 8 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71. East wind 6 to 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.

Saturday: Rain likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain before 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Central Jersey

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. East wind 5 to 15 mph.

Friday Night: A chance of rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain, mainly after 9am. High near 65. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Saturday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.

Jersey Shore

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph.

Friday Night: Rain, mainly after 2am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 64. Breezy, with an east wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Windy, with a northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then rain likely. Low around 64. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

South Jersey

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 77. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 5 to 15 mph.

Friday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 68. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Rain. Low around 59. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.