Final NJ Gubernatorial Poll Before Election Day: See Who Leads

As voters prepare to cast their ballots in New Jersey on Tuesday, pollsters have been trying to gauge the likely outcome of the gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

According to AtlasIntel, the two candidates are separated by less than 1 percentage point, and the majority of those likely to vote have decided who they will choose for governor.

The poll of 1,639 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 25 through Oct. 30, AtlasIntel said. It released the polling information on Friday.

AtlasIntel has been called the most accurate pollster. In 2024, it was the only polling firm to correctly indicate the winner of the presidential race in each state. It also accurately predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Sherrill had 50.2 percent of those polled saying they would vote for her, with 49.3 percent saying they would vote for Ciattarelli, according to the data. The margin of error was plus/minus 2 percent.

Of those surveyed, 38 percent were ages 45 to 64 and 33.7 percent were 65 or older; 37.2 percent said they were Democrats, 32.7 percent Republicans and 30 percent said they were independent; 53 percent were women, 46 percent were men, and 1 percent preferred not to say. Of those surveyed, 71.9 percent were white, 10.9 percent were Hispanic, 9 percent were Black and 7.4 percent were Asian.

Sherrill had 58.7 percent of women and a 51.1 percent to 48.7 percent edge among those 65 and older. Cittarelli had 59.3 percent of men, and 59.3 percent of those ages 45-64.

Ciattarelli held a 59.5 to 40.1 percent edge among Black voters and a 51 to 48.7 percent lead among white voters.

Of those polled, 66.3 percent said inflation, the cost of living and affordability was the most important issue, with 34.2 percent saying taxes were the most important. The economy and jobs market (21.6 percent) and immigration (21.2 percent) were next.

The likely voters surveyed gave Ciattarelli a 1 percentage point edge (49 to 48 percent) on the affordability and a 5 percentage-point edge (50 to 45 percent on taxes.

Of those surveyed, 49.2 percent blame the Republicans for the federal government shutdown, while 44.5 percent blame the Democrats.

Sherrill had the support of 94.7 percent of Democrats likely to vote. Among those who said they voted in the 2021 gubernatorial election and support Sherrill, 93.1 percent said they voted for Gov. Phil Murphy. Of likely voters who support Sherrill, 68.7 percent did not vote in 2021.

Ciattarelli had the support of 96.2 percent of Republicans likely to vote in this election; 98.1 percent of those who would vote for him this year voted for him in 2021, and 59.8 percent of those who voted for someone else in 2021 said they would vote for him this year.

The poll asked how the likely voters feel about President Donald Trump and Murphy, and similar to other polls, 52 percent disapprove of Trump's performance to 47 percent approving, and 53 percent disapprove of Murphy's performance to 43 percent approving, with 4 percent saying "Don't know" on Murphy's performance.

The poll also asked how the respondents felt about a number of political leaders. Former President Barack Obama, who stumped in New Jersey for Sherrill in recent days, received a 51 percent positive rating to 46 percent negative among those surveyed. Trump, who has endorsed Ciattarelli, received a 47 percent positive to 52 percent negative rating.

Sherrill was evenly split at 49 percent positive-49 percent negative, and Ciattarelli was 46 percent positive to 50 percent negative.

Former Governor Chris Christie was included on the list and received a 73 percent negative rating.