New Jersey Winter Forecast Calls For Warmer, Wetter Season

NEW JERSEY — New Jersey is increasingly likely to have a warmer-than-average, wetter-than-average winter, according to updated forecasts, as a strengthening El Niño shapes weather patterns.

An El Niño climate pattern is defined by shifting winds and rainfall patterns across the United States.

The way an El Niño forms is when the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, kicking off a chain reaction that disrupts typical patterns and lasts through the winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in September that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance it would become a very strong event during the fall and winter.

The result is a 40-50 percent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures, except in the northwesternmost portion of the state, which will see a 50-60 percent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures for New Jersey this winter, according to the National Weather Service.

For reference, the average January high in Newark is 39 degrees, and the average low is 27 degrees, while the average high in Atlantic City in January is 43 degrees, and the low is 28 degrees, according to Weather Spark.

Despite the warmer temperatures, winter storms remain likely due to above-normal precipitation along the East Coast.

Combined with the warmer temperatures, the storms could fall as rain, snow, or a slushy combination of both.

This winter, the National Weather Service is giving New Jersey a 40-50 percent chance of increased winter precipitation in the northern half of the state, and a 50-60 percent chance in the southern portion of the state, as of the Oct.15 briefing.

Mild temperatures may reduce snowfall totals, which averaged 37.8 inches of snow last winter in the Garden State, according to the Rutgers Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist.

The National Weather Service’s next El Niño briefing is on Nov. 19. Stay tuned for updates on Patch.