Over 100K Moved Out Of NJ After COVID Hit, State's Population Declines

NEW JERSEY — More than 100,000 New Jersey residents have moved out of the state since COVID-19 took root, according to newly released federal data. Recent migration trends show Americans leaving the Northeast in droves during the pandemic, while the South's population immensely grew.

New Jersey's population declined by 27,332 from April 1, 2020, through July 1 of this year, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The shift marks a 0.3 percent drop in the state's estimated population, which totaled 9.26 million as of July.

Shifts in life circumstances linked to COVID prompted millions of Americans to move to a different part of the country. But departures from New Jersey also trended pre-pandemic, with the state recording the nation's highest rate of outbound residents, compared to inbound moves, every year from 2018-21, according to United Van Lines.

Although the populations of several northeastern states have declined since 2020, New York sustained the nation's greatest reduction — in terms of both the number of people lost and the rate of decline. The Empire State's population fell by 524,079 people (2.6 percent) from April 2020 to this July.

During that 27-month span, New Jersey lost 107,749 residents to domestic migration. The figure may mark a significant undercount of how many people left New Jersey, since it marks a net loss in population from domestic moves.

The state also gained 55,037 residents from overseas migration, resulting in an overall loss of 52,712 people from moves in and out of state in two-plus years.

The southern states — which tend to have lower taxes and warmer weather — reaped the greatest population growth. The South increased its population by 2.3 million through moves during the pandemic, while every other region lost residents to net migration. Here were the overall population shifts from net migration from April 2020 to this July, according to the Census Bureau:

The pandemic also represents a mass-casualty event, with the nation sustaining 1.25 million "excess deaths" — the number of fatalities that occurred, compared to the amount typically expected for that time period — since February 2020, according to the CDC. The toll includes 29,959 excess deaths in New Jersey.

The Garden State, however, added 19,751 to its population through "natural change" during that time, with 102,555 births and 82,804 deaths, according to federal estimates. The United States sustained 431,192 more births than deaths.

That wasn't the case everywhere. Deaths exceeded births in both the Northeast by 5,705 and in the Midwest by 19,096. However, census officials remain optimistic about overall population growth.

"There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase," Kristie Wilder, a census demographer, said in a statement. "A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase."